我国城市发展与能源碳排放关系的面板数据分析

城市化与城市能耗及其碳排放密切相关，城市发展过程中的人口城市化进程和产业总量与结构调整都是能源碳排放变化的主要驱动因素。以2006-2015年全国158个地级城市的面板数据为基础，从总量变化趋势和空间变化趋势两个角度分析了研究期内的我国城市发展特征及能源碳排放特征；并利用面板计量分析方法研究了城市发展因素对城市总能耗、总能耗碳排放、单位能耗碳排放量的驱动特征。结果表明：城市化每提升0.095%，总能耗上升1%。虽然城市总能耗及能耗碳排放在降低，但是单位能耗碳排放在增加；第二产业和第三产业发展对总能耗及能耗碳排放的驱动作用大；城市第三产业的发展有利于能源结构优化调整等；并基于研究发现给出一些政策建议。

The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions: Analysis of panel data from 158 cities in China

Urbanization is closely related to urban energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. The process of population urbanization and industrial structure adjustment in urban development are the main drivers of changes in carbon emissions. Based on the panel data of 158 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this study analyzes the urban development characteristics and energy carbon emission characteristics of China from total volume and spatial variation. The study uses panel measurement to analyze the driving characteristics of urban development factors on total urban energy consumption, total carbon emissions, and carbon emissions per unit energy consumption. The results show that for every 0.095% increase in urbanization, the total energy consumption increases by 1%. Although the total urban energy consumption and carbon emissions are decreasing, the carbon emissions per unit energy consumption are increasing. The total energy consumption of secondary and tertiary industries is also increasing. The development of tertiary industries in the city is beneficial for the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure. Based on the findings, some policy suggestions are proposed.