旅游城镇化不可转移生态足迹演变及驱动因素

研究沿用不可转移生态足迹反映旅游城镇化地区所承受的生态压力，利用偏最小二乘法构建足迹与驱动因子之间的回归模型，并通过构建驱动指数模型，比较各驱动因素对不可转移生态足迹变化的贡献。以张家界为案例地，研究旅游城镇化各阶段足迹演变及驱动规律。研究结果显示：（1）旅游城镇化地区不可转移生态足迹、人均不可转移生态足迹总体上呈现出平缓增长的动态变化，发展能力具有不稳定性。对外开放程度的提高，并不能抑制足迹的增长。在不控制生产总量的情况下，资源生产效率的提高会带来更多的不可转移足迹。（2）各因素对人均不可转移生态足迹影响的弹性系数由大到小分别为城镇居民人均可支配收入、第二产业增加值、城镇化率、第三产业增加值、资源生产效率、城市建设用地、第一产业增加值、旅游人口密度。产业内部结构会影响产业增加值对人均不可转移足迹的弹性系数。（3）旅游城镇化初级阶段，不可转移生态足迹增加，最主要的驱动因素是第二产业增加值、旅游人口密度、第三产业增加值；旅游城镇化高级阶段，不可转移生态足迹增加，最主要的驱动因素是第三产业增加值、第二产业增加值、第一产业增加值。建议如下：在旅游城镇发展的初级阶段，合理推进城镇化进程，控制旅游规模，提高第二产业、第三产业生产效率，改变高能耗结构，培养居民、旅游者生态意识；在旅游城镇发展的高级阶段，调整第一产业和第三产业内部结构，提高第二产业效率，培育以旅游引导的技术密集型业态，提高第三产业比重和质量，通过贸易实现生物生产性足迹输出，有效控制不可转移生态足迹的增长，显著提高旅游城镇化地区发展能力。

Evolution and driving factors of non-transferable ecological footprint in the process of tourism urbanization

This paper uses nontransferable ecological footprint to reflect ecological pressure on the tourism urbanization areas. It employs partial least squares to build the regression model between footprint and driving factors, and compares the contribution of driving indexes to the change of nontransferable ecological footprint by constructing the driving coefficient model. The paper studies the footprint evolution and driving law of tourism urbanization in different stages by the case of Zhangjiajie. The results indicate that (1) the nontransferable ecological footprint and the per capita nontransferable ecological footprint in the tourism urbanization areas generally show a smoothly growing dynamic change. The nontransferable ecological footprint are, from large to small, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the added value of secondary industry, the urbanization rate, the added value of tertiary industry, the resource production efficiency, the urban development land, the added value of primary industry, and the tourism population density. The internal structure of industry affects the elasticity coefficient of the nontransferable ecological footprint of the industrial added value. (3) In the initial stage of tourism urbanization, the nontransferable ecological footprint increases. The important driving factors are the added value of secondary industry, the density of tourism population, and the added value of the tertiary industry. In the advanced stage of tourism urbanization, the nontransferable ecological footprint increases. The main driving factors are the added value of tertiary industry, the added value of secondary industry, and the added value of primary industry. We put forward the following suggestions. In the initial stage of the development of city and town tourism, we should rationally promote the urbanization process, control the scale of tourism, improve the production efficiency of the secondary and tertiary industries, change the structure of high energy consumption, and cultivate the ecological awareness of residents and tourists. In the advanced stage of the development of city and town tourism, we should adjust the internal structure of the primary industry and the tertiary industry, improve the efficiency of the secondary industry, cultivate technology-intensive industries led by tourism, increase the proportion and quality of the tertiary industry, achieve a biological productive footprint through trade export, effectively control the growth of non-transferable ecological footprint, and significantly improve the development capacity of tourism urbanization areas.