The future excess fraction of cancer due to lifestyle factors in Australia |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Population Health, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia;2. Department of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, Queensland, Australia;1. Institute for Cancer Epidemiology, University of Lübeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160, 23562, Lübeck, Germany;2. Danish Cancer Society, Strandboulevarden 49, 2100, København, Denmark;1. Infectious Diseases Institute, Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda;2. Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States;3. Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya;4. Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH), Eldoret, Kenya;5. University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States;6. Masaka Regional Referral Hospital, Masaka, Uganda;7. Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, Mbarara, Uganda;8. Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, United States;1. Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA;2. Department of Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA;3. Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;4. Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;5. Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA;1. Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Department of Paediatric Oncology and Haematology, Germany;2. Charité-Universistätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Institute of Social Medicine, Epidemiology and Health Economics, Germany;3. Charité-Univesristätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Berlin Institute of Health, Institute of Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology (iBiKE), Germany;4. St. Anna Kinderspital Vienna, Austria;5. University Hospital Hradec Králové, Czech Republic;6. University Hospital Ostrava, Czech Republic;7. University Hospital Brno, Czech Republic;8. Medical University Bialystok, Poland;9. University Hospital Motol, Prague, Czech Republic;10. Medical University Graz, Austria;11. University of Lucerne, Department of Health Sciences and Medicine, Switzerland;12. Medical University Wroclaw, Poland;13. Kepler Universitätsklinikum GmbH, Linz, Austria;14. Eastern Switzerland University of Applied Sciences, Department of Health Sciences, Institute of Applied Nursing Science, St. Gallen, Switzerland;15. Berlin Institute of Health (BIH), Berlin, Germany;1. Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA;2. Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology, and Diabetes and Division of Hematology/Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;1. Center for the Study of Drugs, Alcohol, Smoking and Health Department of Health Behavior and Biological Sciences, School of Nursing, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;2. Department of Health Behavior, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, NY, USA;3. Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;4. Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;5. Institute for Research on Women and Gender, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;6. Addiction Center, Department of Psychiatry, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;7. Rogel Cancer Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;8. Center for Sexuality and Health Disparities, School of Nursing, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundMany cancers are caused by exposure to lifestyle, environmental, and occupational factors. Earlier studies have estimated the number of cancers occurring in a single year which are attributable to past exposures to these factors. However, there is now increasing appreciation that estimates of the future burden of cancer may be more useful for policy and prevention. We aimed to calculate the future number of cancers expected to arise as a result of exposure to 23 modifiable risk factors.MethodsWe used the future excess fraction (FEF) method to estimate the lifetime burden of cancer (2016–2098) among Australian adults who were exposed to modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and occupational risk factors in 2016. Calculations were conducted for 26 cancer sites and 78 cancer-risk factor pairings.ResultsThe cohort of 18.8 million adult Australians in 2016 will develop an estimated 7.6 million cancers during their lifetime, of which 1.8 million (24%) will be attributable to exposure to modifiable risk factors. Cancer sites with the highest number of future attributable cancers were colon and rectum (n = 717,700), lung (n = 380,400), and liver (n = 103,200). The highest number of future cancers will be attributable to exposure to tobacco smoke (n = 583,500), followed by overweight/obesity (n = 333,100) and alcohol consumption (n = 249,700).ConclusionA significant proportion of future cancers will result from recent levels of exposure to modifiable risk factors. Our results provide direct, pertinent information to help determine where preventive measures could best be targeted. |
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| Keywords: | Cancer Lifestyle factors Prevention Risk factors |
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