Mass attack of trees by Ips typographus induced by sex-specific pheromone: a model of attack dynamics

A model of attack dynamics on a single tree under mass attack by the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is developed from earlier studies of pheromone production and response of the flying population to the pheromone signal. The model is explored for different numbers and sex-ratios of pioneer beetles and responding beetles. Both numbers of pioneers and responders were important for the dynamics, while the sex-ratio of pioneers was less important. A decreased proportion of males among the responding beetles was important for the result of the model. In the early stage of the attack the model predictions of both numbers and sex-ratio of beetles landing were similar to examples from naturally mass-attacked trees, although the attack proceeded more slowly than in the field. Several aspects of the attack dynamics, such as density-regulation of the number of attacks on the tree, as observed in the field, were not predicted by the model. Gaps in the knowledge of the chemical ecology of the tree-insect relation, such as qualitative change in odours from the tree, spacing mechanisms on the bark surface, and mortality due to host resistence, are pointed out with help of the model.