首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
   检索      


Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land‐use changes
Authors:Nicolas Titeux  Klaus Henle  Jean‐Baptiste Mihoub  Adrián Regos  Ilse R Geijzendorffer  Wolfgang Cramer  Peter H Verburg  Lluís Brotons
Institution:1. European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR‐CTFC), InForest Joint Research Unit (CSIC‐CTFC‐CREAF), Solsona, Spain;2. Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Earth and Life Institute, Louvain‐la‐Neuve, Belgium;3. Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain;4. Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ‐Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany;5. Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CESCO, UMR 7204 MNHN‐CNRS‐UPMC, Paris, France;6. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Batiment Villemin, Aix‐en‐Provence Cedex 04, France;7. Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;8. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Spain
Abstract:Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward‐looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land‐use and land‐cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land‐use and land‐cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward‐looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.
Keywords:biodiversity projections  climate change  ecological forecasting  land system science  land‐cover change  predictive models  species distribution models  storylines
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号