大足鼠种群动态的非线性模型及逐步回归分析

本文提出了一种从原始数据中获取关于种群动态机制的基本信息的，以非线性模型为基础的逐步回归逐步预测的种群动态分析法。并以作者１９８９－１９９１年间于四川邛崃定点进行示志重捕以及夹捕解剖所得的关于农田大足鼠种群生态学特征的数据为例，对大足鼠和种群密度与年龄组成，各年龄组性比、繁殖特征以及气象等因子的关系进行了初步的分析，定量地确定了当前的各生态因子对未来的大足鼠种群密度的作用，并对数量了初步的分析的讨

NONLINEAR MODEL AND STEPWISE REGRESSION OF POPULATION DYNAMICS OF Rattus nitidus

A method to study population dynamics based on raw data and nonlinear model bystepwise regression and stepwise prediction is developed in this paper.The data on Rat-tus nitidus were collected in our study site in Qionglai county,Sichuan province by mark-recapture , trap and dissection technique from 1989 to 1991. The relationship betweenpopulation density and age structure ,sex ratios ,reproductive characters ,temperature andprecipitation are analysed arid quantified to predict population density of Rattus nitidusand determine to what extent the present-day ecological factors are influencing the fu-ture population density. Stepwise regression results reveal that the relationship betweenpopulation density of Rattus nitidus and age structure is conspicuous , but the relation-ship between population density and sex ratios is not. Reproductive characteristicsshowed significant effects on population density with reproductive time delay.