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The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity |
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| Authors: | Viggo Andreasen Juan Lin Simon A Levin |
| Institution: | (1) Department of Mathematics and Physics, Roskilde University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. e-mail: viggo@fatou.ruc.dk, DK;(2) Department of Physics, Washington College, Chestertown MD 21620, USA, US;(3) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Eno Hall, Princeton University, Princeton NJ 08544, USA, US |
| Abstract: | We develop a model that describes the dynamics of a finite number of strains that confer partial cross-protection among strains. The immunity structure of the host population is captured by an index-set notation where the index specifies the set of strains to which the host has been exposed. This notation allows us to derive threshold conditions for the invasion of a new strain and to show the existence of an endemic multi-strain equilibrium in a special case. The dynamics of systems consisting of more than two strains can exhibit sustained oscillations caused by an overshoot in the immunity to a specific strain if cross-protection is sufficiently strong. Received 15 January 1996; received in revised form 24 June 1996 |
| Keywords: | : Infectious diseases Cross-immunity Influenza Multiple viral strains |
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