Modelling of autumn plankton bloom dynamics

A simple system of parametrically forced ordinary differentialequations is used to model autumn phytoplankton blooms in temperateoceans by a mechanism involving deepening of the upper mixedlayer. Blooms are triggered provided the increase in nutrientsin the mixed layer is rapid within the first few days of deepeningand provided light-limited phytoplankton growth rate is relativelyhigh. Blooms exist as transient trajectories between quasi-equilibriumstates, rather than as bifurcations of steady states; thereforevery gradual deepening cannot trigger blooms. Very rapid deepeningalso prevents blooms due to the deleterious effect on phytoplanktongrowth rate. The mechanisms identified by this simple modelare vindicated by considering alternative grazing and deepeningregimes and by comparison with a more ecologically complex model(Fasham, 1993, in The Global Carbon Cycle, Springer-Verlag).Modelled estimates of primary productivity from both the simplemodel and the complex model parameterized for Ocean WeatherStation ‘India’ are around 0.5 g C m^–2 day^–1during the autumn bloom, therefore comprising a significantcomponent of annual production in temperate areas.