Applicability of an Arrhenius Model for the Combined Effect of Temperature and CO2 Packaging on the Spoilage Microflora of Fish

The temperature behavior of the natural microflora on the Mediterranean fish red mullet (Mullus barbatus) was examined as a case study. The growth of the spoilage bacteria Pseudomonas spp., Shewanella putrefaciens, Brochothrix thermosphacta, and lactic acid bacteria was modeled as a function of temperature and the concentration of carbon dioxide in modified atmosphere packaging. Combined models were developed and comparatively assessed based on polynomial, Belehradek, and Arrhenius equations. The activation energy parameter of the Arrhenius model, E_A, was independent of the packaging atmosphere and ranged from 75 to 85 kJ/mol for the different bacteria, whereas the preexponential constant decreased exponentially with the packaging CO₂ concentration. We evaluated the applicability of the models developed by using experimental bacterial growth rates obtained from 42 independent experiments performed with three Mediterranean fish species and growth rates predicted from the models under the same temperature and packaging conditions. The accuracy factor and bias factor were used as statistical tools for evaluation, and the developed Arrhenius model and the Belehradek model were judged satisfactory overall.