| 摘 要： | Studies on disclosing characteristics and endangered mechanisms of Castanopsis kawakamii population ecology have already become an urgent task of protecting C. kawakamii population. The establishment of the standard life table is one of an important work study on C. kawakamii population ecology, and determining individual ages of the plant is necessary for studying age structures and population dynamics of C. kawakamii. There are three main methods of determining individual age of forest population: (1) by annual ring of tree, (2) by individual growth phase, and (3) by DBH and height of tree. However, the three methods have their shortcomings, such as low precision, worse serviceability, high difficulty for operation and so on. In this paper, a new method for determining plant individual ages more accurately is presented on the basis of the method aboUt “annual ring–time series”. Based on the stem analysis, the multidimensional time series model of diameter growth at breast height in C. kawakamii population was established by Utilizing the analYtical method of multidimensional time series: Yt = 1.325034Yt-1 ? 0.4711007Yt-2 ? 284.5648Ut + 569.4783Ut?1 ? 284.8745Ut?2, where Yt, Yt-1, Yt-2 represent diameter growth in C. kawakamii population at t, t ? 10 and t ? 20 years respectively, and Ut, Ut?1, Ut?2 represent individual age in C. kawakamii population at t, t ? 10 and t ? 20 years respectively, the model coefficient correlation is 0.9994. Based on this model CAR(2), the total increment of individual DBH in C. kawakamii population are simulated and regressively verified at different ages. The mean simulating precision of this model was 98.84%, the maximum relative error was 2.56%, bUt the next was 2.47% and the minimum relative error was 0.07%, showing that this model was suitable for estimating breast-height diameter of C. kawakamii plant. Using the multidimensional time series model, diameter growth of C. kawakamii population for longer time series was estimated in order to gain data for establishing the relationship model of individual age, diameter growth and to increase its precision in determining individual age is by tree ring analysis. A combination method of determining individual age of C. kawakamii population by integrating annual ring data with its diameter using multidimensional time series model, which can improve precision of individual ages in C. kawakami, was produced: A = 9.966671944 + 1.146011591D + 0.041059628D2 ? 0.000211907D3, where A and D represent individual age and diameter at breast height respectively in C. kawakamii population, the model coefficient correlation is 0.9998. The combination model, which shows that the regression relationship is significant and the model can exactly predict the individual age of population, is a valuable tool for determining individual ages in endangered plants.
|
