基于生态区位系数的湖北省森林生态安全评价及重心演变分析

森林是地球生态系统中的重要组成部分,然而随着人类经济与社会的迅速发展,森林生态系统越来越脆弱,这会影响到人类的可持续发展,因此研究森林生态安全具有较强的现实意义。基于湖北省从1999年到2014年的面板数据,首先运用熵权法和模糊物元法计算出森林生态安全指数,然后结合气象类指标和地形类指标计算出生态区位系数,再用此系数来调整森林生态安全指数,还结合了Arc GIS软件和重心分析模型,得出如下结论:(1)生态区位系数最高的区域主要分布在湖北省东部和中部少数区域,最低的区域主要分布在湖北西部,而且生态区位系数与经济发达程度具有一定的耦合性;(2)从这16年间的森林变化来看,森林生态安全最差等级区域的县域增加了100%,反映湖北森林生态安全形势整体不太乐观;(3)丹江口市、松滋市的森林生态安全指数在这16年一直保持上升趋势;(4)森林生态安全重心在1999年至2007年间的迁移方向为从西北到东南;2007年至2014年从东往西迁移,移动速度较快。

Forest ecological security evaluation based on ecological location coefficient and gravity center transfer analysis in Hubei Province

Forest ecosystems are important but fragile, and the rapid development of economy and society can affect the sustainable development of human beings. Therefore, the study of forest ecological security has a strong significance. Based on the date of forest panel from 1999 to 2014 in Hubei Province, this paper used the entropy method and fuzzy matter-element method to calculate the forest ecological security index, which was adjusted according to the ecological location coefficient obtained from the meteorological and terrain indices. Moreover,combined use of the ArcGIS software and the gravity analysis model in the present study revealed that:(1) the area with the highest ecological location coefficient was mainly distributed in the western and the central regions of Hubei Province. Futher,the area with the lowest ecological location coefficient was mainly distributed in the west,and the coefficient was correlated to a certain extent with economic development. (2)From the perspective of forest cover change in the 16-year study period, the counties with the worst forest ecological security grade increased 100%,reflecting that the overall situation of forest ecological security in Hubei is not optimistic. (3)The forest ecological security index of Danjiangkou and Songzi maintained an increasing trend during the study period. (4)The foest ecological security gravity center moved from the northwest to the southeast from 1999 to 2007,and thereafter from east to west at a high speed until 2014.