气候变化背景下中国未来森林生态系统服务价值的时空特征

基于用CEVSA模型计算的NPP及Costanza等提出的生态系统服务价值计算方法,分析了基准期(1971—2000年)及未来(2021—2050年)我国森林生态系统服务价值时空动态变化特征。结果表明,基准期及未来RCP4.5、RCP8.5两情景下,我国森林生态系统服务总价值均呈逐年增加趋势,年均值分别为12.80(4.55—20.72)万亿元、14.81(5.26—23.97)万亿元、15.13(5.38—24.49)万亿元。总价值在空间上均呈现出西部、东北低及南部高的格局。未来总价值除了在少数地区(新疆中部、内蒙古西部、甘肃西北部、西藏东南部以及我国东北和南方部分森林边缘地区)将降低外,在其他地区均增加,且增幅在东部大于西部,南部大于北部,其中华南增幅最大(RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下年均增幅分别达1.87亿元、2.13亿元)。高增幅比例(45%)主要分布在我国东北北端。生态系统服务各功能构成项对总价值的贡献率依次为:土壤形成与保护(17.8%)气体调节(16.0%)生物多样性保护(14.9%)水源涵养(14.6%)气候调节(12.4%)原材料生产(11.9%)废物处理(6.0%)娱乐文化(5.9%)食物生产(0.5%),即物质产品产出价值(12.4%)远低于非物质价值(87.6%)。揭示了未来30年我国森林生态系统服务价值的时空格局动态演化及气候变化的影响,为气候变化背景下合理利用森林资源、促进生态环境保护及实施可持续发展战略提供科学量化的依据。

Temporal-spatial dynamic pattern of forest ecosystem service value affected by climate change in the future in China

The temporal and spatial dynamics in forest ecosystem service value from 1971 to 2000 as a baseline period and the predicted values from 2021 to 2050 in China were analyzed using the calculation method put forward by Costanza, etc., which is based on the NPP data from the CEVSA model. The results show that the total forest ecosystem service value had an increasing trend, with an annual mean of 12.80 (4.55-20.72)×10¹², 14.81 (5.26-23.97)×10¹², and 15.13 (5.38-24.49)×10¹² yuan, respectively, for the baseline period and in the future under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The space distribution was characterized by lower values in the west and northeast, and higher values in the south of China. The values decreased in relatively small areas i.e., the center of Xinjiang, the west of Inner Mongolia, the northwest of Gansu, the southeast of Tibet, and some forest edges in Northeast China and southern areas, but increased in other regions in the future, relative to the baseline period. The higher amplitude increases in the east and south, and the lower ones in the west and north were examined. The greatest annual rise was 1.87×10¹² and 2.13×10¹² under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in South China. The relatively high increase in percentage ( > 45%) was in the north of Northeast China. The contribution rates to service value for individual forest ecosystem function were in the order:soil formation and protection (17.8%) > gas regulation (16.0%) > biodiversity protection (14.9%) > water conservation (14.6%) > climate regulation (12.4%) > raw material production (11.9%) > waste treatment (6.0%) > recreation and culture (5.9%) > food production (0.5%). This study revealed a dynamic evolution pattern for forest ecosystem service values in the future and its corresponding response to climate change in China, which is conducive to providing a scientific and quantitative basis for utilizing forest resources rationally, promoting ecological environment protection, and implementing the sustainable development strategy under climate change.