中国典型城市群城镇化碳排放驱动因子

城市群作为推进国家新型城镇化的战略举措,是国家参与全球竞争与国际分工的主要地域单元。以中国典型城市群6个代表性城市(北京、天津、上海、广州、武汉和重庆)为案例,采用因素分解法将碳排放的影响效应分解为4部分,包括人口规模效应、经济发展效应、能源强度效应和碳强度效应,研究2000—2014年城镇化过程中碳排放的驱动机制。主要结果:(1)各城市群的经济总量均有增长,能源效率逐渐提高,碳排放强度在北京、上海和重庆的是下降趋势,在天津呈上升趋势,而在广州和武汉则趋于平稳状态,各城市群能源消耗中各种能源的比重和碳排放量的变化存在着较显著的差异性;(2)天津和广州的4个碳排放影响效应整体上是逐渐增大,北京和上海是趋于平稳对称,武汉和重庆是先减小后增大。研究表明,经济和人口对碳排放具有正向作用,能源强度对碳排放具有负向作用。通过研究中国典型城市群碳排放的驱动因子,有助于城市群碳排放权交易的政策制定以及城市群发展模式规划。

Carbon emissions from urbanization in typical urban agglomerations of China: Spatial patterns and drivers

In order to participate in global competition and international cooperation, urban agglomeration serves as the main geographical unit to promote China''s new urbanization in recent years. This study investigated the driving mechanism of carbon emissions during the rapid urbanization over the past 15 years (2000-2014) in China. We selected six representative cities in typical urban agglomerations including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing. The factor decomposition method was used to quantify the spatial patterns and drivers of carbon emissions. Four factors were used to analyze the driving mechanism for carbon emissions, including the population scale effect, economic development effect, energy intensity effect, and energy structure effect. Another four factors were calculated to quantify the urbanization characteristics in these cities, including the carbon emission intensity, energy intensity of economic activity, per capita GDP, and year-end total population. The results showed that the total economic levels in all urban agglomerations are growing and the energy efficiency is improved stably. These urban agglomerations have different proportions of energy sources and significant changes in carbon emissions. The intensity of carbon emissions declined in the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing whereas it increased in Tianjin. Comparably, the intensity of carbon emissions was stable in Guangzhou and Wuhan. Secondly, the results showed that the income effect and population effect in urban agglomerations have positive effects on the driving mechanism of carbon emissions whereas energy intensity has negative effects. We also note that the carbon intensity of carbon emissions remains uncertain. Generally, the effects of four driving factors on carbon emissions increased gradually from 2000 to 2014 in Tianjin and Guangzhou. These effects were stable in Beijing and Shanghai during this period. Interestingly, the cities of Wuhan and Chongqing have a curve trend with a decrease at first and then an increase. This study focused on the driving factors of carbon emissions in typical urban agglomerations of China. The results help to support policy-making on carbon-emissions trading in urban agglomerations and provide practical strategies for urban agglomeration management.