Consequences of asymmetric competition between resident and invasive defoliators: A novel empirically based modelling approach |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden;2. Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland;3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland;4. Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;1. Infection, Prevention, and Control, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada;2. Computational Epidemiology and Public Health Informatics Laboratory, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;3. Department of Computer Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;4. School of Public Health, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;1. Department of Physics, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden;2. Institut für Genetik, Universität zu Köln, 50674 Köln, Germany;3. Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, CB2 3EJ Cambridge, UK;4. Integrative Systems Biology Lab, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia;5. The Linnaeus Centre for Marine Evolutionary Biology, University of Gothenburg, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;1. Department of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Chicago, 1101 East 57th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA;2. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Alfred Denny Building, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK;1. Mathematics Department, University of Wisconsin La Crosse, 1020 Cowley Hall, 1725 State Street, La Crosse, WI, USA;2. Environment & Sustainability Institute, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK;3. Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK;4. Department of Mathematics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA |
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| Abstract: | Invasive species can have profound effects on a resident community via indirect interactions among community members. While long periodic cycles in population dynamics can make the experimental observation of the indirect effects difficult, modelling the possible effects on an evolutionary time scale may provide the much needed information on the potential threats of the invasive species on the ecosystem. Using empirical data from a recent invasion in northernmost Fennoscandia, we applied adaptive dynamics theory and modelled the long term consequences of the invasion by the winter moth into the resident community. Specifically, we investigated the outcome of the observed short-term asymmetric preferences of generalist predators and specialist parasitoids on the long term population dynamics of the invasive winter moth and resident autumnal moth sharing these natural enemies. Our results indicate that coexistence after the invasion is possible. However, the outcome of the indirect interaction on the population dynamics of the moth species was variable and the dynamics might not be persistent on an evolutionary time scale. In addition, the indirect interactions between the two moth species via shared natural enemies were able to cause asynchrony in the population cycles corresponding to field observations from previous sympatric outbreak areas. Therefore, the invasion may cause drastic changes in the resident community, for example by prolonging outbreak periods of birch-feeding moths, increasing the average population densities of the moths or, alternatively, leading to extinction of the resident moth species or to equilibrium densities of the two, formerly cyclic, herbivores. |
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| Keywords: | Adaptive dynamics Branching–extinction cycle Parasitism Population cycles Predation |
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