| Abstract: | The aim of the study was to compare BMI with waist circumference (WC), waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR), and waist‐to‐stature ratio (WSR) as a predictor of diabetes incidence. A total of 1,841 men and 2,104 women of Mauritian Indian and Mauritian Creole ethnicity, aged 25–74 years, free of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and gout were seen at baseline in 1987 or 1992, and follow‐up in 1992 and/or 1998. At all time points, participants underwent a 2 h 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Hazard ratios for diabetes incidence were estimated applying an interval‐censored survival analysis using age as timescale. Six hundred and twenty‐eight individuals developed diabetes during the follow‐up period. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for diabetes incidence corresponding to a 1 s.d. increase in baseline BMI, WC, WHR, and WSR for Mauritian Indians were 1.49 (1.31–1.71), 1.58 (1.38–1.81), 1.54 (1.37–1.72), and 1.61 (1.41–1.84) in men and 1.33 (1.17–1.51), 1.35 (1.19–1.53), 1.39 (1.24–1.55), and 1.38 (1.21–1.57) in women, respectively; and for Mauritian Creoles they were 1.86 (1.51–2.30), 2.07 (1.68–2.56), 1.92 (1.62–2.26), and 2.17 (1.76–2.69) in men and 1.29 (1.06–1.55), 1.27 (1.04–1.55), 1.24 (1.04–1.48), and 1.27 (1.04–1.55) in women. Paired homogeneity tests showed that there was no difference between BMI and each of the central obesity indicators (all P > 0.05). The relation of BMI with the development of diabetes was as strong as that for indicators of central obesity in this study population. |
