基于GARP 的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的分布区预测

加拿大一枝黄花( Solidago canadensis) 原产北美, 是在中国大陆危害最严重的入侵植物之一。本研究基于大量已有分布点数据, 使用生态位模型(GARP) 对其在中国的潜在扩散区域进行了预测, 结果表明: 极端低温、年均温对加拿大一枝黄花的分布限制较小, 而坡度、坡向、年降雨量、雨日频率、汇流累积量、水流方向、极端高温和霜日频率对其分布影响显著。加拿大一枝黄花的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区, 因此仍会继续在中国扩散; 中国中南部和东北部是加拿大一枝黄花最易形成入侵的地区, 应采取措施防止其入侵。

Potential Distributions of Solidago canadensis (Asteraceae) in China as Predicted by GARP

Solidago canadensis L . is a perennial plant of the family Asteraceae , native to North American . It is one of the most harmful alien species in mainland China . This research applied Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP)ecological niche modeling to predict the species′potential range in China on the basis of occurrence points . The results indicated that: Environmental factors such as Slope, aspect, annual precipitation, wet days, flow accumulation, flow direction, maximum temperature and frost days greatly influenced the size of S . canadensis′s potential range , while parameterssuch as minimum temperature and mean annual temperature had little impact . Areas that we predict to have potential for invasion were still larger than those areas that had been invaded . Therefore , S. canadensis is predicted to continue to expand in China . Northeast and south- central China was most liable to be invaded; hence urgent measures should be taken there to prevent this species from further spreading .