晋北典型矿农城复合区生态系统服务价值权衡与协同

受到人类剧烈活动的影响，矿农城复合区的土地利用类型在短时间内转换频繁，进而对生态系统服务价值的变化产生显著影响，严重威胁区域生态系统的稳定性和可持续发展。分析和预测矿农城复合区生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem Service Value，ESV）时空演变特征、权衡与协同关系，对协调区域生态功能和人类需求具有重要意义。以晋北典型矿农城复合区为例，基于未来土地利用模拟（Future Land Use Simulation，FLUS）和价值当量表估算法，分析并预测了1990-2026年土地利用类型及ESV变化，同时结合相关性指数分析2026年不同情景下生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明：（1）2018-2026年研究区土地利用格局变化显著，主要表现在农用地、损毁地以及其他地类的相互转换上。在不同的发展情景下，2026年研究区的ESV存在较大的差异。自然、经济及生态发展情景的ESV总量依次为1.87亿元，1.69亿元和2.01亿元。（2）1990-2018年间，矿区土地复垦为研究区带来ESV增量1.95亿元。其中，第一阶段和第二阶段带来的ESV增量分别为1.86亿元和0.09亿元。相较于第一阶段，土地复垦第二阶段虽然数量少，但占比不断增加，有较大的发展潜力。另外，草地转林地和耕地转林地是第二阶段ESV增量的主要来源，其增值分别为430.03万元和404.61万元。（3）各项生态系统服务协同关系明显，受到人类扰动较少的西南区域和人类扰动剧烈的矿区均表现为协同关系，仅有少数地区表现为权衡关系，且调节-文化服务的权衡关系较为明显。本文可为矿农城复合区的生态系统服务管理提供一定的支撑。

Trade-off and synergy of ecosystem service value in typical mine-agriculture-urban compound area: A case study in north Shanxi, China

The intensive anthropogenic activities have triggered dramatic variations of land-use types in mine-agriculture-urban compound areas, which further exerted adverse effects on ecosystem service values and threatened the stability and sustainable development of regional ecosystem seriously. It is significant for balance between regionally ecological functions and human demands to analyze and predict the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, trade-offs and synergies of Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) in mine-agriculture-urban compound areas. Therefore, we analyzed and predicted the variations of land-use types and ESV in the mine-agriculture-urban compound area in north Shanxi from 1990 to 2026 based on the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the valuation scale estimation. In addition, we explored the tradeoffs and synergies between ecosystem services of multiple scenarios in 2026 using correlation indexes. The results demonstrated that (1) the land use pattern changed significantly from 2018 to 2026, which was mainly characterized by the frequent conversion among agriculture land, damaged land and other land-use types. In 2026, the ESVs of the study area showed dramatic variations under different development scenarios. The total ESVs of nature, economy and ecology development scenario in 2026 were 187 million yuan, 169 million yuan and 201 million yuan, respectively. (2) Land reclamation created about 195 million yuan from 1990 to 2018, of which 186 million yuan was achieved in the first stage while 9 million yuan was achieved in the second stage. In spite of the lower ESV increase amount compared with the first stage, the increased ESV in the second stage accounted for an increasingly larger proportion, indicating that the second stage had remarkable potential in improving the total ESV. Besides, the conversion processes from grassland and cultivated land into forest land were the main driving forces for the ESV increase in the second stage and the increased ESVs were 4.30 million yuan and 4.05 million yuan in the two processes.(3) Each kind of ecosystem service showed the synergistic relationship obviously. The southwestern region with less human disturbance and the mining area with severe human disturbance showed the synergistic relationship. Only a few regions showed trade-off relationship, where the most obvious trade-off relationship was found between regulation and culture. This paper provided a certain support to the management of ecosystem service in mine-agriculture-urban compound area.