基于固碳服务供需视角的河南省碳平衡研究

土地利用变化影响陆地系统碳循环过程。在实现碳中和目标的背景下，分析区域碳平衡，优化土地利用结构具有现实意义。以河南省为例，以1 km网格为单元，应用InVEST碳固存模块、IPCC碳排放核算、人口密度法等方法，研究1995、2005、2015年区域碳平衡的时空变化。结果表明，研究区固碳服务的供需量与土地利用类型密切相关。固碳服务的供需在空间存在错配关系，即需求高的地区通常具有较低的供给。研究时段内，研究区的总碳固量逐年下降，总碳排放量逐年增加，研究区碳平衡表现为整体向好，局部恶化的情况。在碳平衡分析的基础上提出了空间优化利用建议，可为未来国土空间规划碳平衡目标的实现提供参考。

Carbon balance from the perspective of supply and demand of carbon sequestration services in Henan Province

Land use and land cover change mainly affect the carbon cycle process in the terrestrial ecosystem. In the context of achieving carbon neutrality, it is of practical significance to analyze regional carbon balance and optimize land use structure. Taking 1 km grid as the unit and Henan Province as an example, this paper used InVEST carbon sequestration module, IPCC carbon emission accounting method, and population density method to study the spatio-temporal changes of regional carbon balance in 1995, 2005, and 2015. The results show that the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services in the study area are closely related to land use types. There is a spatial mismatch between supply and demand of carbon sequestration services, that is, areas with high demand usually have low supply. During the study period, the total carbon sequestration in the study area decreased year by year, while the total carbon emissions increased year by year. The carbon balance in the study area showed an overall positive trend, while local deterioration. Based on the analysis of carbon balance, some suggestions on spatial optimization are put forward, which can provide reference for the realization of carbon balance target of national spatial planning in the future.