Density‐dependent pre‐dispersal seed predation and fruit set in a tropical tree

Negative density‐dependent demographic processes operating at post‐dispersal seed, seedling, and juvenile stages are the dominant explanation for the coexistence of high numbers of tree species in tropical forests. At adult stages, the effect of pollinators and pre‐dispersal fruit predators are often dependent on the density or abundance of flowers and fruit in the canopy, but each have opposite effects on individual realized reproduction. We studied the effect of density on total and mature fruit set and pre‐dispersal predation rates within individual tree canopies in a common canopy tree species, Jacaranda copaia in a 50‐ha forest census plot in central Panama. We sampled all reproductive sized trees in the plot (n = 188) across three years and estimated fruit set and predation rates. Population‐wide pre‐dispersal seed predation averaged between 6–37% across years. Using linear mixed effects models, we found that increased density and fecundity of conspecific neighbours increased focal tree fruit set, but also the rate of pre‐dispersal predation. An interaction between individual and neighbourhood fruit production predicted lower predation rates at high individual and neighbourhood fecundities, which suggests predator satiation at high fruit abundance levels. However, the rate at which fruit set increased with conspecific neighbour fruit production was greater than the rate at which fruit were lost to predation, resulting in an overall positive effect of neighbour density on mature fruit production in focal trees. Our results run counter to the expectation of a uniformly negative effect of density across all life stages in tropical trees and suggest further exploration of the role of spatial clumping, pollen dispersal limitation, and predation at pre‐dispersal adult stages in maintenance of species diversity in plant communities.