Avoid nest predation when predation rates are low,and other lessons: testing the tropical–temperate nest predation paradigm

Nest predation is the most important cause of nest failure in most birds and latitudinal differences in nest predation rates and life histories suggest that nest predation has been influential in life history evolution. All else equal, natural selection should favor reduction of nest predation, yet evidence is equivocal. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the combined effects of variation in nest predation rates, breeding season length and renesting intervals on the annual number of young fledged. Simulations suggest that selection most strongly favors a reduction in nest predation when breeding seasons are short and predation rates are low (temperate characteristics). Conversely, selection favors shorter renesting intervals when breeding seasons are long and nest predation rates are high (tropical characteristics). Reducing already low rates provides a proportionately greater increase in annual nesting success than does the same reduction when nest predation rates are higher. In some tropical species, individuals increase reproductive success not by avoiding predation in subsequent nesting attempts, which is largely beyond their control, but rather by reducing renesting intervals. We suggest that the emphasis on nest predation avoidance has biased our perspectives for alternative hypotheses of how birds should respond to nest predation and the consequences of those alternatives for life history theory. Similarly to the need to control for phylogenetics in examining life history strategies, future studies must also control for differences in breeding season lengths and renesting intervals to better understand the influence of nest predation on avian life histories.