NIKEI: A New Inexpensive and Non-Invasive Scoring System to Exclude Advanced Fibrosis in Patients with NAFLD |
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| Authors: | Münevver Demir Sonja Lang Martin Schlattjan Uta Drebber Inga Wedemeyer Dirk Nierhoff Ingrid Kaul Jan Sowa Ali Canbay Ulrich T?x Hans-Michael Steffen |
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| Institution: | 1. Clinic for Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.; 2. Clinic for Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital of Essen, Essen, Germany.; 3. Institute for Pathology, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.; 4. Institute of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Epidemiology, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.; Institute of Hepatology, Foundation for Liver Research, United Kingdom, |
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| Abstract: | AimsTo develop, validate and compare a non-invasive fibrosis scoring system for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) derived from routinely obtained clinical and biochemical parameters.Methods267 consecutive patients with biopsy proven fatty liver or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis were randomly assigned to the estimation (2/3) or validation (1/3) group to develop a model for the prediction of advanced fibrosis. Univariate statistics were performed to compare patients with and without advanced fibrosis, and following a multivariate logistic regression analysis a new scoring system was constructed. This non-invasive Koeln-Essen-index (NIKEI) was validated and compared to the FIB-4 index by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We evaluated a stepwise combination of both scoring systems for the precise prediction of advanced fibrosis. To set in contrast, we additionally tested the diagnostic accuracy of the AST/ALT ratio, BARD score and the NAFLD fibrosis score in our cohort.ResultsAge, AST, AST/ALT ratio, and total bilirubin were identified as significant predictors of advanced fibrosis and used to construct the NIKEI with an AUC of 0.968 0.937; 0.998] compared to 0.929 0.869; 0.989] for the FIB-4 index. The absence of advanced fibrosis could be confirmed with excellent accuracy (99–100%). The positive predictive value of the FIB-4 index was higher (100% vs. 60%), however, the false negative rate was also high (33%). With a stepwise combination of both indices 82%–84% of biopsies would have been avoidable without a single misclassification. The AUROC for AST/ALT ratio, the NAFLD fibrosis score, and the BARD score were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72–0.90), 0.96 (95% CI 0.92–0.99), and 0.67 (95% CI 0.55–0.78), respectively.ConclusionThe NIKEI can reliably exclude advanced fibrosis in subjects with NAFLD. In combination with the FIB-4 index misclassification with inadequate clinical management can be avoided while the need for liver biopsies can be reduced. |
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