| 摘 要： | Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (BPH) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices from January of two years previously to the current June was investigated to make long-term forecast. The teleconnection results were as follows: ENSO indices which were significantly correlated with the early immigration of BPH were primarily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in N3, N4 and N3.4 regions, accounting for 71.8% of the total. Significant ENSO indices from two years and one year before the immigration events had a proportion of about 84%, while those in the current year only accounted for 16.7%. There was significantly negative correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region from two years before to the previous spring, whereas there was significantly positive correlation between these two factors during the period from the previous winter to the current spring. The significant correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region in the last summer and autumn did not show any obvious tendencies. The relationship between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and the early immigration of BPH was opposite to that between the immigration and SSTA in each Nino region. The above mentioned significant ENSO indices were used as key factors to build forecasting models for the early immigration of BPH by step-wise multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, 12 integrated forecasting models were obtained, which could make predictions 3–27 months ahead and had a predictive accuracy of 88.9%.
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