Bayesian modelling of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome |
| |
Authors: | E S McBryde G Gibson A N Pettitt Y Zhang B Zhao D L S McElwain |
| |
Institution: | (1) School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia;(2) Department of Infectious Diseases, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia;(3) Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland;(4) Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi, P.R. China;(5) Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute, 111 Barry Street, Carlton, Melbourne, Australia |
| |
Abstract: | This paper analyses data arising from a SARS epidemic in Shanxi province of China involving a total of 354 people infected
with SARS-CoV between late February and late May 2003. Using Bayesian inference, we have estimated critical epidemiological
determinants. The estimated mean incubation period was 5.3 days (95% CI 4.2–6.8 days), mean time to hospitalisation was 3.5
days (95% CI 2.8–3.6 days), mean time from symptom onset to recovery was 26 days (95% CI 25–27 days) and mean time from symptom
onset to death was 21 days (95% CI 16–26 days). The reproduction ratio was estimated to be 4.8 (95% CI 2.2–8.8) in the early
part of the epidemic (February and March 2003) reducing to 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.85) in the later part of the epidemic (April
and May 2003). The infectivity of symptomatic SARS cases in hospital and in the community was estimated. Community SARS cases caused transmission to others at an estimated rate of 0.4 per infective per day during the early part of the epidemic,
reducing to 0.2 in the later part of the epidemic. For hospitalised patients, the daily infectivity was approximately 0.15 early in the epidemic, but fell to 0.0006 in the later part of the
epidemic. Despite the lower daily infectivity level for hospitalised patients, the long duration of the hospitalisation led to a greater number of transmissions within hospitals compared with
the community in the early part of the epidemic, as estimated by this study. This study investigated the individual infectivity
profile during the symptomatic period, with an estimated peak infectivity on the ninth symptomatic day. |
| |
Keywords: | SARS Bayesian Modelling Infectious disease Viral transmission |
本文献已被 PubMed SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|