Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming |
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Authors: | Michael R Kearney Natalie J Briscoe David J Karoly Warren P Porter Melanie Norgate Paul Sunnucks |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Zoology, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia;2.School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia;3.Department of Zoology, The University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA;4.School of Biological Sciences, Australian Centre for Biodiversity, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia |
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Abstract: | There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity. |
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Keywords: | phenology biophysical ecology physiological ecology climate change mechanistic model ecological forecasting |
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