Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures |
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| Authors: | Isabel Iglesias María N Lorenzo Juan J Taboada |
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| Institution: | 1. Grupo de Física de la Atmósfera y del Océano. Facultad de Ciencias. Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.; 2. Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.; 3. Meteogalicia. Xunta de Galicia. Santiago de Compostela, Spain.; University of Aveiro, Portugal, |
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| Abstract: | This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast. |
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