中国五味子分布范围及气候变化影响预测

结合文献资料、标本记录和实际调查绘制了中国五味子分布图,并基于五味子分布范围和21个环境因子,运用Maxent软件预测了IPCC A2和A1B两种气候变化情景下21世纪50和80年代中国五味子分布范围.结果表明:五味子分布于中国15省/市(区),涉及151个县,随着纬度和经度的降低,面积逐渐减少,黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古和吉林4省(区)是五味子主要分布区域；五味子在中国的潜在分布面积为145.12×104 km2,较好生境面积占48.6％,主要分布在长白山山脉、大兴安岭、小兴安岭以及河北省与辽宁省相邻区域；最佳生境面积仅占0.3％,主要分布在辽宁省的宽甸满族自治县、本溪满族自治县、桓仁满族自治县以及吉林省的安图县、和龙市和内蒙古自治区牙克石市.在A1B和A2两种情景下,未来五味子潜在分布区逐渐减少,A2情景的五味子潜在分布区下降比率大于AIB情景；至21世纪50年代,A1B和A2情景下五味子潜在分布区将缩减为当前潜在分布区面积的84.0％和81.5％；至21世纪80年代,A2情景下五味子潜在分布区仅为当前的0.5％,B2情景下五味子潜在分布区减至当前的1/2.

Current distribution of Schisandra chinensis in China and its predicted responses to climate change

With integration of literature data,specimens records,and field surveys,the current distribution map of Schisandra chinensis in China was drawn,and,based on this map and considering 21 environmental factors,the future distribution of S.chinensis in China in the 2050s and 2080s under the IPCC A2 and A1B climate change scenarios was predicted by using Maxent software.Currently,the S.chinensis in China occurred in 15 provinces,involving 151 counties,and its distribution area decreased with decreasing latitude and longitude.The main distribution area included Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,and Jilin.The potential distribution area of S.chinensis in China was 145.12×104 km2,48.6% of which were the favorable habitat area,mainly distributed in Changbai Mountains,Xiaoxing ’ anling Mountains,Daxing ’ anling Mountains,and the regions between Hebei and Liaoning provinces.The most favorable habitat area only accounted for 0.3%,and was mainly in the Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County,Benxi Manchu Autonomous County,and Huanren Manchu Autonomous County of Liaoning Province,the Antu County and Helong County of Jilin Province,and the Yakeshi City of Inner Mongolia.Under the two climate change scenarios,the potential future distribution area of S.chinensis in China would have a gradual decrease,and the decrement would be larger under A2 than under A1B scenario.By 2050,the distribution area of the S.chinensis under A1B and A2 scenarios would be moderately decreased to 84.0% and 81.5% of the current distribution area,respectively;by 2080,the distribution of S.chinensis under A2 scenario would be dramatically decreased to only 0.5% of the current range,and that under A1B scenario would be decreased to 1/2 of the current range.