A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes |
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Authors: | Tatsuya Amano Richard J. Smithers Tim H. Sparks William J. Sutherland |
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Affiliation: | 1.Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan;2.Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK;3.The Woodland Trust, Autumn Park, Dysart Road, Grantham NG31 6LL, UK;4.Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71C, 60-625 Poznań, Poland |
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Abstract: | Widespread concerns about global biodiversity loss have led to a growing demand for indices of biodiversity status. Today, climate change is among the most serious threats to global biodiversity. Although many studies have revealed phenological responses to climate change, no long-term community-level indices have been developed. We derived a 250-year index of first flowering dates for 405 plant species in the UK for assessing the impact of climate change on plant communities. The estimated community-level index in the most recent 25 years was 2.2–12.7 days earlier than any other consecutive 25-year period since 1760. The index was closely correlated with February–April mean Central England Temperature, with flowering 5.0 days earlier for every 1°C increase in temperature. The index was relatively sensitive to the number of species, not records per species, included in the model. Our results demonstrate how multi-species, multiple-site phenological events can be integrated to obtain indices showing trends for each species and across species. This index should play an important role in monitoring the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Furthermore, this approach can be extended to incorporate data from other taxa and countries for evaluating cross-taxa and cross-country phenological responses to climate change. |
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Keywords: | first flowering global warming hierarchical model indicator phenology 2010 target |
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