气候变化下西南地区主要亚热带常绿栎属乔木地理分布研究

为了解中国西南地区6种亚热带常绿栎属植物在未来气候情景下的潜在分布，该文利用最大熵模型(maximum entropy model, MaxEnt)和地理信息系统技术，结合帽斗栎(Quercus guyavaefolia)、川滇高山栎(Q. aquifolioides)、毛脉高山栎(Q. rehderiana)、高山栎(Q. semecarpifolia)、灰背栎(Q. senescens)和匙叶栎(Q. dolicholepis)的分布数据、生理生态特性、环境数据及未来2070s (2061—2080年)气候情景数据(SSPs126、SSPs245、SSPs585)，分析了未来气候变化对各乔木种潜在地理分布的影响。结果表明，6种乔木MaxEnt模型的AUC均值均大于0.9，模拟效果好。温度季节性、年降水量、海拔、最冷月最低温和坡度等5个环境因子为6种栎属乔木分布的主导环境因子，即多适宜分布在温度季节性变化较小、温暖潮湿的山区。其中，川滇高山栎、毛脉高山栎和高山栎较其他3树种更适宜生长于温度偏低、温度季节性变化略大的中、高山地区。西南地区6种主要亚热带常绿栎属乔木潜在适宜区主要分布在西南地区，华中地区西部、华南地区西部和西北地区南部部分地区也有分布，高适宜区主要位于四川南部和云南西北部。在未来气候情景下，西南地区亚热带常绿主要栎属乔木适宜区面积以增长趋势为主，且向西北方向迁移。

Geographical Distribution of Main Subtropical Evergreen Quercus Trees in Southwest China Under Climate Change

In order to understand the potential distribution of six subtropical evergreen Quercus species in south-west China under future climate scenarios, based on the distribution data, physiological and ecological characteristics of six Quercus trees in Southwest China, including Q. guyavaefolia, Q. aquifolioides, Q. rehderiana, Q. semecarpifolia, Q. senescens and Q. dolicholepis, environmental data and future the 2070s (2061—2080) climate scenario data (SSPs126, SSPs245, SSPs585), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology were used to analyze the impact of future climate change on the potential distribution of these tree species. The results showed that the AUC values of the MaxEnt model for all six Quercus species were more than 0.9, indicating high model simulation accuracy. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of six Quercus speciesincludedtemperature seasonality, annual precipitation, altitude, minimum temperature of coldest month and slope. Consequently, these tree species were mostly suitable for distributing in warm and humid mountainous areas with minimal seasonality temperature changes. Compared to the other three tree species, Q. aquifolioide, Q. rehderiana and Q. semecarpifolia were more suitable for growing in middle and high mountain areas with lower temperatures and slightly greater seasonal temperature changes. The potential suitable areas for these six Quercus species were southwest China, as well as western of central China, western of south China and southern of northwest China. The high suitable areas were mainly located in southern Sichuan and northwestern Yunnan. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of main subtropical evergreen Quercus trees in southwest China would expand to the northwest as a whole.