4个常用的气候-植被分类模型对中国植被分布模拟的比较研究

 应用KAPPA一致性检验方法，比较研究了4个常用的气候植被分类模型：Penman模型、Holdridge生命地带系统、Kira模型和Thornthwaite模型对中国植被分布模拟的一致性和适用性。结果表明：这4个常用的气候 植被分类模型对中国植被区划一级分类的植被地理分布模拟效果较好。其中，Holdridge生命地带系统的KAPPA值达到0.57，模拟效果优于其它三者。但对特定地区，如青藏高原的植被地理分布，所有模型均需改进或引入新的影响因子才能较好地模拟二级植被区划的植被地理分布。1)Penman模型对温带草原和青藏高原的植被地理分布模拟的KAPPA值超过0.50，是4个模型中对青藏高原植被地理分布模拟效果最好的。2)Thornthwaite模型对热带雨林、季雨林植被地理分布模拟的KAPPA值达到0.40，可以弥补Holdridge生命地带系统对热带植被地理分布模拟精度的不足。3) Holdridge生命地带系统对中国植被地理分布模拟的效果最佳，但对西部季雨林、雨林区域(52)、西部草原亚区域(63)、青藏高原温性荒漠地带(86)和温性草原地带(84)的模拟程度不理想。4)Kira模型对亚热带常绿阔叶林植被地理分布的模拟效果可与Holdridge生命地带系统相媲美；对低海拔和湿润、湿润地区植被地理分布的模拟效果尚可，但在温带荒漠区与青藏高原区植被地理分布的模拟效果与实际相差较远。

COMPARISON OF SIMULATED VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION IN CHINA PRODUCED BY FOUR POPULAR CLIMATE-VEGETATION CLASSIFICATION MODELS

The effectiveness and accordance of four popular climate-vegetation classification models (Penman model, Thornthwaite model, Holdridge Life Zone System and Kira model) for the geographic distribution of Chinese vegetation is compared using the KAPPA agreement statistic method. The results indicate that those four classification models work well in the first level of Chinese Vegetation Division. The KAPPA value of the Holdridge Life Zone System (0.57) is the largest among the four models. It showed that it is the best one a-mong four models in simulating the geographical distribution of Chinese vegetation. However, regarding some specific regions, for example, the Tibetan plateau, all of the models need to be refined or to take new affecting factors into account in order to obtain a better simulation of the geographic distribution of vegetation. 1) The Penman model could simulate the geographic distribution of vegetation in temperate steppe and Tibetan plateau with a KAPPA value greater than 0.50. It is the best one for Tibetan plateau among the four models. 2) The Thornthwaite model could give the best simulation for tropical rain forests and seasonal rain forests with KAPPA value of 0.40. It might compensate for the ineffectiveness of the Holdridge Life Zone System in this area. 3) The Holdridge Life Zone System is the best one among the four models for simulating the geographical distribution of vegetation in China based on the first level of vegetation division in China, but it still fails to simulate west seasonal rain forests and rain forests (52) , west temperate steppe (63) , Tibetan plateau temperate desert (86) and Tibetan plateau temperate steppe (84) . 4) The Kira model simulates the subtropical evergreen forest zone very well, and its KAPPA value in this zone is close to that of the Holdridge Life Zone System. Also it could simulate moderately well the geographical distribution of vegetation in low elevation and humid/semi-humid area, but it was far from the ground truth when applied to the regions of temperate desert and Tibetan Plateau. This research also implies that it is urgent to develop better climate-vegetation classification model in order to provide better input to the general circulation models (GCMs) with the geographic distribution of vegetation and to accurately evaluate the possible effects of climate change on vegetation.