Empirical, free of genetic model, estimation of recurrence risks in multifactorial diseases: conditional probability approach]

Conditional probability approach in estimation of recurrence risks in sibships of different parental phenotypic matings with the different set of affected and normal siblings is considered. The formulae are presented for calculation of recurrence risks in cases of equal and different susceptibility of two sexes under different ways of sampling of family data: direct selection of offsprings through the parents; indirect selection of offsprings through affected siblings--the probands, under different ascertainment probability--from pi = 1.0 ("exhaustive selection") up to pi----0 ("single selection"); for the case of different susceptibility of the two sexes a possibility of the differences in the ascertainment probabilities of men (pi m) and of women (pi w) is allowed, unlike "independent ascertainment model", which requires the constancy of pi. The case of multiple incompatible subforms is considered for estimation of the recurrence risks of the specified subforms. The methods of the risks estimation proposed are free of genetic models being universal both for classical mendelian traits (with the constant risks) and for multifactorial ones (with variable risks).