Modeling the effects of varicella vaccination programs on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles |
| |
Authors: | Matthew C Schuette Herbert W Hethcote |
| |
Institution: | (1) Applied Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Two possible dangers of an extensive varicella vaccination program are more varicella (chickenpox) cases in adults, when the
complication rates are higher, and an increase in cases of zoster (shingles). Here an age-structured epidemiologic—demographic
model with vaccination is developed for varicella and zoster. Parameters are estimated from epidemiological data. This mathematical
and computer simulation model is used to evaluate the effects of varicella vaccination programs. Although the age distribution
of varicella cases does shift in the simulations, this does not seem to be a danger because many of the adult cases occur
after vaccine-induced immunity wanes, so they are mild varicella cases with fewer complications. In the simulations, zoster
incidence increases in the first three decades after initiation of a vaccination program, because people who had varicella
in childhood age without boosting, but then it decreases. Thus the simulations validate the second danger of more zoster cases. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 PubMed SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|