基于最大熵值法生态位模型（Maxent）的三种实蝇潜在适生性分布预测

本研究首先对3种重要生态位模型BIOCLIM， DOMAIN和Maxent（基于最大熵值原理模型）的分布预测精确度进行了分析和比较, 再结合分布点记录以及一系列环境数据图层对3种重要外来入侵性检疫害虫（葫芦寡鬃实蝇Dacus bivittatus、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇D. ciliatus和西瓜寡鬃实蝇D. vertebratus）的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测和分析。在模型预测精确度的比较过程中, 3种评估指标（ROC/AUC, Kappa, TSS）均显示Maxent拥有最好的预测结果和最好的运行性能。由Maxent对葫芦寡鬃实蝇、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇和西瓜寡鬃实蝇的预测结果显示, 这3种实蝇在中美洲、南美洲、东南亚和澳大利亚沿岸的广大地区在总体上具有相似的分布区域。相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在全球范围具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述地区外, 其潜在适生区还包括地中海沿岸、沙特阿拉伯、也门、安曼和伊朗南部的大片地区, 这也意味着在3种寡鬃实蝇中, 它能忍受变化幅度最广的生态、环境条件。在中国, 云南和海南都极适宜于3种实蝇的生存, 同时广东南部及台湾的部分地区也是它们的潜在适生区。基于Maxent的预测结果显示, 相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在中国范围也具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述省份和地区外, 四川、贵州和西藏的南部部分地区以及中国南部的部分沿海地区, 也都是它的潜在适生区。综合所得出的预测结果, 3种寡鬃实蝇从境外传入广东并在此定殖的风险可能性是实际存在的。Jackknife分析显示, 温度以及与此有关的环境因子对于3种实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式和分布情况都有极大的影响, 并需要进一步的研究。

Maximum entropy niche-based modeling(Maxent)of potential geographical distributions of fruit flies Dacus bivittatus,D.ciliatus and D.vertebrates(Diptera:Tephritidae)

In order to predict and analyse the potential geographical distributions of three important quarantine invasive pests.Dacus bivittatus.D.ciliatus and D.vertebratus,three ecological niche modeling techniques,BIOCLIM.DOMAIN and Maximum entroPY niche.based modeling(Maxent)were implemented by using distribution records of the three fruit fly species and a set of environmental predictor variables.Differences in prediction performance of the three models with thresholds were observed.An evaluation using independent records of D.bivittatus showed that Maxent offers the most accurate predictions than two other models based on three values of ROC/AUC.Kappa.and TTS.Prediction outcomes made by Maxent revealed that the three fruit fly species have broadly similar potential ranges in Central American,South American,Southeast Asia,and Coastalarea8 of Australia in general.D.ciliatus has the comparatively widest potential range among the three species,including Coastal areas of Mediterranean Sea,Saudi Arabia,Yemen,Oman and South Iran,suggesting that it may be tolerant of the widest range of climatic conditions among the three species.In China,while large area8 ofYunnan and Hainan are very habitable for all the three fruit fly species,southern part of Guangdong and Taiwan are also their habitable areas.D.ciliatus has the widest potential distribution area.with southern part ot btenuan,Guizhou and Tibet plus the coastal areas of southern China all being its suitable areas.The risk of the three fruit fly species permanently establishing in Guangdong if introduced exist but low.Jackknife analysis revealed that temperature and its variation have comparative significant influence on the distribution patterns of three fruit fly species both in global and restricted regions.