Present and future distribution of three aquatic plants taxa across the world: decrease in native and increase in invasive ranges

Inland aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to both climate change and biological invasion at broad spatial scales. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future potential distribution of three invasive plant taxa, Egeria densa, Myriophyllum aquaticum and Ludwigia spp., in their native and exotic ranges. We used species distribution models (SDMs), with nine different algorithms and three global circulation models, and we restricted the suitability maps to cells containing aquatic ecosystems. The current bioclimatic range of the taxa was predicted to represent 6.6–12.3% of their suitable habitats at global scale, with a lot of variations between continents. In Europe and North America, their invasive ranges are predicted to increase up to two fold by 2070 with the highest gas emission scenario. Suitable new areas will mainly be located to the north of their current range. In other continents where they are exotic and in their native range (South America), the surface areas of suitable locations are predicted to decrease with climate change, especially for Ludwigia spp. in South America (down to ?55% by 2070 with RCP 8.5 scenario). This study allows to identify areas vulnerable to ongoing invasions by aquatic plant species and thus could help the prioritisation of monitoring and management, as well as contribute to the public awareness regarding biological invasions.