Potential spread of the invasive North American termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, and the impact of climate warming

Reticulitermes flavipes is an invasive termite from North America that is found in several European countries, including France from north to south. It feeds on several timber species and can cause major damage when it infests lumber. Termites are urban pests: they are often found in and around towns and their expansion is closely linked to human activity. Although, by law, termite infestations must be reported and treated, R. flavipes continues to spread. To better identify areas that may soon be colonized, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms underlying the termite’s spread at a fine spatial scale. However, the complexity of the species’ dispersal dynamics (i.e., via swarming, budding, or human-mediated transport of infested material) and social organization render this process difficult. The goal of our study was to determine R. flavipes’ potential to expand its current range within a region of France: Centre-Val de Loire. We focused on one administrative department within the region—Indre and Loire—where infestations are common and data on termite presence date back to the 1980s. We developed a spatiotemporal model to study the growth and dispersal of termite colonies within favorable habitat. Habitat favorability was defined based on the density of urbanization and annual mean minimum temperature. First, we modeled temporal population dynamics, using biological parameters describing the transitions between life stages/castes within colonies; we could thus estimate alates production. Then, using this information, we modeled termite dispersal within favorable habitat, and determined the termite’s potential spread. We validated the results by comparing the model’s output with actual data on the termite’s range expansion between 1985 (when the termite was first observed in the region) and 2013. Finally, the model was used to predict the termite’s future spread given climate warming for the period from 2013 to 2030. The results show that an increase in temperature should increase the amount of favorable habitat and, as a consequence, termites could continue to spread within this region. In addition to continuing current control efforts, it will be necessary to enact preventative strategies in newly favorable habitat. In these areas, monitoring efforts should therefore be intensified, as they might be able to slow down the termite’s spread and limit its impact.