Spatial variation in breeding phenology at small spatial scales: A stochastic effect of population size

Spatial variation in phenology can occur at small spatial scales over which individuals can disperse or forage within one generation. Previous studies have assumed that variations in phenological peaks are caused by differences in abiotic environmental characteristics. However, environments should generally be similar among local habitats over small spatial scales. When the local population size is small, the phenological peak of the local population should be strongly affected by the variation in timing expressed by individuals. If a regional population consists of small local subpopulations (e.g., a metapopulation), the stochastic processes regulated by population sizes may explain the spatial variation in phenology. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent of the spatial and annual variations in the breeding phenology of the forest green tree frog, Rhacophorus arboreus habiting a small area (<10 km²). The spatial variation in phenological peaks among 25 breeding sites was large over 6 years. This spatial variation was not explained by differences in air temperature or water depth. Randomization tests revealed that a large portion of the spatial variation could be explained by differences in population size, without considering site-specific factors. Annual variations in phenological peaks tended to be greater for smaller populations. These results imply that the stochastic process might have caused the spatial and annual variations in the phenological peaks of R. arboreus observed in the study region. Understanding spatiotemporal variation in phenology determined by stochastic process would be important to better predict interspecific interactions and (meta)population dynamics at small spatial scales.