| Abstract: | Abstract. The hypothesis of lottery establishment ( Sale 1977 ) explains coexistence of species with similar niches through processes of stochastic recruitment. This initial idea forms the basis for a variety of mathematical models, but has not been tested empirically. This study is a field investigation of lottery establishment for plants with a seed bank, using Canonical Correspondence Analysis to compare the compositions of the vegetation and the seed bank according to different hypotheses on the mechanisms of establishment. This method was used for a data set from old fields from southern France. The weighted lottery (i.e. a random draw from the seed pool, weighted by the frequencies of each species) appeared as the best suited hypothesis to explain the high degree of similarity between the vegetation and the seed bank and the relative spatial distributions of the species. Several mechanisms are probably interacting, depending on the life histories of the species. Modelling and experimental approaches are needed to further test the hypothesis of lottery recruitment. |
