Precise vegetation restoration in arid regions based on potential natural vegetation and potential normalized difference vegetation index

Precise vegetation restoration is critical in drylands, as some inappropriate restoration attempts have even increased water scarcity and degradation in afforestation areas. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is widely used to provide a reference for the appropriate location and vegetation type of restoration programs while the appropriate restored areas remain unknown. Therefore, we proposed a PNV–potential normalized difference vegetation index (PNDVI) coupling framework based on multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms for precise dryland vegetation restoration. Taking the lower Tarim River Basin (LTRB) with a total area of 1,182 km² as a case study, its present suitable restoration locations, area, and appropriate planting species were quantitatively estimated. The results showed that the model developed by incorporating PNDVI into PNV with easily measurable and available data such as temperature and soil properties can accurately identify dryland restoration patterns. In LTRB, the potentially suitable habitats of trees and grass are closer to the riverbank, while shrubby habitats are further away from the course, covering 1.88, 2.96, and 25.12 km², respectively. There is still enormous land potential for further expansion of the current trees and grass in the LTRB, with 2.56 and 1.54% of existing land supposed to be trees and grass, respectively. This study's novel aspect is combining PNV and PNDVI to quantify and estimate precise restoration patterns through multiple ML algorithms. The model developed here can be used to evaluate the suitable reforestation locations, area, and vegetation types in drylands and to provide a basis for precise vegetation restoration.