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A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment |
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| Authors: | Arino Julien Brauer Fred van den Driessche P Watmough James Wu Jianhong |
| Institution: | a Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man., Canada R3T 2N2 b Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z2 c Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada V8W 3R4 d Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada E3B 5A3 e Centre for Disease Modeling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ont., Canada M3J 1P3 |
| Abstract: | Compartmental models for influenza that include control by vaccination and antiviral treatment are formulated. Analytic expressions for the basic reproduction number, control reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic are derived for this general class of disease transmission models. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the dependence of the control reproduction number on the parameters of the model give a comparison of the various intervention strategies. Numerical computations of the deterministic models are compared with those of recent stochastic simulation influenza models. Predictions of the deterministic compartmental models are in general agreement with those of the stochastic simulation models. |
| Keywords: | Disease transmission model Sensitivity Elasticity Control reproduction number Final size |
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