Mechanisms for aggregation in animals: rule success depends on ecological variables

Under the threat of predation, animals often group tightly together,with all group members benefiting from a reduction in predationrisk through various mechanisms, including the dilution, encounter-dilution,and predator confusion effects. Additionally, the selfish herdhypothesis was first put forward by Hamilton (1971). He proposedthat in order to reduce its risk of predation, an individualshould approach its nearest neighbor, reducing its risk at theexpense of those around it. Despite extensive empirical support,the selfish herd hypothesis has been criticized on theoreticalgrounds: approaching the nearest neighbor does not result inthe observed dense aggregations, and the nearest neighbor inspace is not necessarily the one that can be reached fastest.Increasingly complex movement rules have been proposed, successfullyproducing dense aggregations of individuals. However, no studyto date has made a full comparison of the different proposedmovement rules within the same modeling environment. Further,ecologically relevant parameters, such as the size and densityof a population or group and the time it takes a predator toattack, have thus far been ignored. Here, we investigate thereduction in risk for animals aggregating using different strategiesand demonstrate the importance of ecological parameters on riskreduction in group-living animals. We find that complex rulesare most successful at reducing risk in small, compact populations,whereas simpler rules are most successful in larger, low-densitypopulations, and when predators attack quickly after being detectedby their prey.