Pollenfertility and seed formation in theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium complex (Liliaceae/Scilloideae)

The pollen fertility and seed formation of six species of theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium complex and of seven related species were studied. Four types of pollen grains could be recognized. The pollen fertility varied greatly in this complex and is not related to the ploidy level. The seed formation ofO. umbellatum showed an adaptation to a subcontinental-Mediterranean climate, that ofO. angustifolium to an Atlantic climate. In both cases raindrops seem to be important for pollination, in view of the absence of insect pollinators. After open pollination 113 seedlings were obtained in four species. Their chromosome numbers were determined. Nearly all the cultivated seedlings were aneuploid, which points to a positive selection of euploids in nature, because aneuploid individuals are rare in the wild.Biosystematic Studies on theOrnithogalum umbellatum/angustifolium Complex III.—Previous parts of this series are Part I: Taxonomy. Proceeding Kon. Ned. Acad. Wet. series C,85 (4), 563–574 (1982) andvan Raamsdonk (1984).     

Statistical analysis for the spatial validity of a model to forecast the daily number of forest fires

In earlier papers a qualitative and quantitative model was developed for predicting the number of forest fires occurring per day. This model permits the forecast at 00.00 hours Universal Time Convention (UTC) of any day (d), the number of forest fires per day for a range of several days (d tod+5) over a particular region. Input data are the number of forest fires in the region during two preceding days (d–2 andd–1) and the type of day (real and evaluated from radiosonde ford–2,d–1,d and predicted from meteorological medium-range forecasts, i.e. of European Centre, ford+1,d+2,d+3,d+4 andd+5. As this model requires data obtained by radiosonde, particularly temperatures and geopotentials at 850 and 700 hPa and dew points (or specific humidity) at 850 hPa, this study investigates the spatial validity of the model in relation to the distance from the radiosonde station (RS). The highest quality forecast is obtained for the region immediately surrounding the RS, and diminishes with increasing distance from it, this being due to the data obtained from the RS not being representative of the atmospheric column over the region. Hence, the derivation of the critical distance for a particular quality level of measurement. Conversely, fixed quality level implies a specific separation between RS and the region for the prediction, with a higher predictive quality implying a shorter distance.     

Productivity of outdoor algal cultures in unstable weather conditions

In the outdoor cyclic fed batch cultures of Chlorella pyrenoidosa, some typical growth kinetics patterns in unstable weather conditions were observed. On cloudy days, the biomass output rate (R) was low, but the bioenergetic growth yield (Y) was generally high. In the cloudy morning-sunny afternoon condition, the values of Y were low, especially in the afternoon. In the sunny morning-cloudy afternoon condition, both R and Y were high. A few very high short-term Y values were measured during the cloudy the cloudy afternoon. (c) 1993 Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Understorey vegetation moderates climate in open forests: The role of the skirt-forming grass tree Xanthorrhoea semiplana F.Muell

Microsites are created by abiotic and biotic features of the landscape and may provide essential habitats for the persistence of biota. Forest canopies and understorey plants may moderate wind and solar radiation to create microclimatic conditions that differ considerably from regional climates. Skirt-forming plants, where senescent leaves create hut-like cavities around the stem, create microsites that are sheltered from ambient conditions and extreme weather events, constituting potential refuges for wildlife. We investigate day and night temperatures and humidity for four locations (grass tree cavities, soil, 20 cm above-ground, 1 m above-ground) in a South Australian forest with relatively open canopy of stringybark eucalypts (Eucalyptus baxteri, E. obliqua) and an understorey of skirt-forming grass trees (Xanthorrhoea semiplana) at 5, 10, 20, and 40 m from the forest edge. We also measured the percentage of canopy and understorey covers. Generally, temperature and humidity differed significantly between more sheltered (grass tree cavities, soil) and open-air microsites, with the former being cooler during the day and warmer and more humid during the night. Furthermore, our results suggest that canopy cover tends to decrease, and understorey cover tends to increase, the temperature of microsites. Distance to the edge was not significantly related to temperature for any microsite, suggesting that the edge effect did not extend beyond 10 m from the edge. Overall, grass trees influenced microclimatic conditions by forming a dense understorey and providing cavities that are relatively insulated. The capacity of grass tree cavities to buffer external conditions increased linearly with ambient temperatures, by 0.46°C per degree increase in maximum and 0.25°C per degree decrease in minimum temperatures, potentially offsetting climate warming and enabling persistence of fauna within their thermal limits. These climate moderation properties will make grass trees increasingly important refuges as extreme weather events become more common under anthropogenic climate change.     

Population suppression for control of the blowfly Lucilia sericata and sheep blowfly strike

Abstract.

• 1 The control of ovine myiasis by suppression of populations of the blowfly Lucifia sericata was investigated experimentally on three farms in the south-west of England in 1992 and 1993.
• 2 In blind trials, sheep on one farm (control) were given two doses of placebo, on a second two doses of the larvicide cyromazine (Vetrazin®, CibaGeigy), and on a third cyromazine and a subsequent dose of placebo.
• 3 The first treatment was given shortly before the predicted spring emergence of L.sericata and the second shortly before the predicted emergence of the second generation. Previous simulation analysis had identified strategic early-season treatment as the optimum for blowfly population suppression.
• 4 On both treatment farms significantly smaller L.sericata populations were recorded throughout 1992 and the incidence of strike was significantly lower than on the control farm. The results show that appropriate early-season timing of sheep treatment can suppress populations of L.sericata and could be used by farmers to reduce the incidence of blowfly strike.
• 5 The results suggest, however, that the effectiveness of population suppression and strike incidence may have been influenced by immigration into the control areas and by adverse weather, the latter changing the susceptibility of sheep to strike and resulting in rising strike incidence even when L.sericata population densities were low. In practice, therefore, blowfly population suppression should be employed as a component of an integrated strike management programme.

     

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site‐specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)‐fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain‐filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West‐European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid‐1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature‐related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.     

Telomere shortening correlates with harsh weather conditions in the bat species Myotis myotis

The relationship of telomere shortening and cellular ageing in cultured cells such as fibroblasts is straightforward: telomeres shorten with an increasing number of cell divisions until they trigger replicative senescence which prevents further mitotic cycles. But studies investigating the relationship between telomere shortening and ageing in whole organisms show contrasting results: while there is a clear decline in telomere length (TL) with chronological age in some species such as humans, no such decline is observed in others. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Foley et al. (2020) show that experiencing harsh weather conditions correlates with longitudinal telomere shortening in the bat species Myotis myotis, whereas chronological age does not (Foley et al., 2020). Further, the authors investigated whether genetics influence TL and find a low heritability (h² = 0.01–0.06) again suggesting that environmental effects are the dominant drivers of variation in TL in this species. These are important findings as there is disagreement in the literature about the relative magnitude of genetic and environmental effects contributing to TL variation in different species. This paper investigating the impact of environmental effects makes a novel and important contribution to the literature on TL in free‐living mammals.     

陕西长武玉米降水指数保险设计

天气指数保险能有效规避传统农业保险的弊端。本研究基于陕西长武长序列产量数据和气象数据,采用统计分析的方法进行种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量、相对气象产量以及玉米生育期需供水的分析;采用基于损失的风险评估方法评价种植风险;采用基于Logistic模型的费率厘定方法进行纯费率厘定;根据降水指数和减产率的相关性,设计降水指数;采用投影寻踪的方法设计降水指数赔付方案。结果表明:长武玉米种植面积、产量、单产、趋势产量以及相对气象产量都呈现出增加趋势;生育期平均需水650 mm,降水434mm,亏缺216 mm;从4月下旬到8月下旬,玉米呈现出水分亏缺的状态,7月中旬抽雄期水分亏缺最多,为33.65 mm;9月出现微弱的水分盈余;1994、1995和1997年为减产年,减产率分别为14%、20%和44%,相应降水距平分别为-42.44%、-47.72%和-29.71%;玉米种植轻、中、重和巨灾的发生概率分别是7.49%、3.40%、1.43%和1%;玉米降水指数保险纯费率为2.92%;生育期内旬降水(阈值为40 mm)累积值指定为玉米降水指数,并以降水指数为变量进行分段赔付。本研究剖析了长武玉米种植状况和干旱灾害,并设计了玉米的降水指数保险产品,为长武玉米农业保险提供了新的选择,对解决农业保险目前的困境具有重要的意义。     

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.