An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Temporal and spatial trends in heavy metal concentrations in the marine mussel Mytilus edulis from the Western Scheldt estuary (The Netherlands)

Since the first North Sea Conference (1984, Bremen), all countries bordering the North Sea made commitments to reduce discharge of hazardous substances into the North Sea. From Belgium and The Netherlands, large reductions (upto 90) in heavy metal emissions from land-based sources have been reported between 1985 and 2000. Recently, some studies in the Western Scheldt estuary (WS) have shown that total metal concentration in the water, sediments and suspended particles have decreased compared to levels in the 70s. However, data on aquatic organisms is still very limited and it is therefore difficult to confirm whether the reductions in pollution input and generally improving water quality in the WS have a corresponding impact on the levels of heavy metals in aquatic organisms. The current study measured metal concentrations in the soft tissues of mussels, Mytilus edulis (known to be good indicators of environmental metal pollution) during the period 1996–2002. Spatial (salinity and pollution gradients), temporal and seasonal variations were also studied. Results showed a down-stream decreasing trend for the metals studied (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) during all sampling campaigns. There was also a significant seasonal effect on tissue metal concentrations, with a peak observed around spring in both WS and the nearby less polluted Eastern Scheldt (ES). On temporal trends, a clear drop of metals in mussels was observed in the early 80s coinciding with the start of the efforts to reduce chemical pollution input into the North Sea. Since those early reductions, metal concentrations in mussels generally remained unchanged upto mid 90s. However, in recent times metal concentration in mussels have increased significantly, for example Cd in 2002 was almost 10 times the values in 1983 and similar to levels seen during the peak in the 70s. Other metals also increased in the 90s also reaching levels seen in the 70s. As there is no indication of recent increase in metal input into the estuary, we suggest that increased metal concentrations observed in mussels in recent years especially in the upper estuary are most likely a result of changes in physical and chemical speciation and metal bioavailability. Such changes may be caused by changes in some water quality parameters in the estuary (i.e. increased dissolved oxygen, concentration of organic matter), resulting in conditions that favour releases of sediment-bound metals into the water column. The relationship between metal content and season showed very similar annual profiles in the polluted WS and less polluted ES. Thus, seasonal variations in metal concentrations appear to be largely controlled by biological processes, while total body burdens are dependent on environmental levels and bioavailability.     

The Everyday Life Context of Increasing Energy Demands: Time Use Survey Data in a Decomposition Analysis

Industrial ecologists have modeled with precision the material foundations of industrial systems, but given less attention to the demand for products and the drivers of structural changes in these systems. This article suggests that time use data complement data on monetary expenditure and can be used to elucidate the everyday life context in which the changes in the economy take place. It builds upon the claim that goods are not direct sources of utility, but enter specific household activities as inputs. A second argument for the proposed approach is that it can be used to introduce and foster human agency in analyses of production systems. The article uses Finnish time use survey data, consumption expenditure data, and data on the sectoral energy intensities of financial output in the Finnish economy. First, a measure of the energy intensity of activities is derived by relating consumer time use and the required direct and indirect energy requirements. Second, the results include a decomposition of changes in the energy requirements of private consumption in Finland during the 1990s. It is shown that although the same activities on average require increasing energy inputs per unit of time, Finns have simultaneously changed the structure of their everyday life toward less energy-intensive activities.     

Alcohol dehydrogenase isozymes in the mouse: Genetic regulation, allelic variation among inbred strains and sex differences of liver and kidney A2 isozyme activity

Genetic analysis of a proposed cis-acting temporal locus ( Adh-3t ), which regulates alcohol dehydrogenase C₂ (ADH-C₂) acitivity in mouse epididymis extracts, among F₁ (ddN × BALB/c) × ddN male backcross progeny provided evidence for genetic distinctness between the structural ( Adh-3 ) and temporal ( Adh-3t ) loci on chromosome 3. Genetic analysis also confirmed the close, linkage of Adh-1 (encoding liver and kidney ADH-A₂) and Adh-3 (encoding stomach ADH-C₂) to within 0.3 centimorgans on the mouse genome. Evidence is presented for a proposed closely linked cis-acting temporal locus (designated Adh-1t ) for the A₂ isozyme (encoded by Adh-1 ) controlling the activity of this enzyme in mouse kidney extracts, but having no apparent affect on liver and intestine ADH-A₂ activities. An extensive survey of the distribution of Adh-1, Adh-3 and Adh-3t alleles among 65 strains of mice is reported — with the exception of two Japanese strains (ddN and KF), linkage disequilibrium between Adh-3 and Adh-3t was observed. Sex differences in mouse liver and kidney ADH-A₂ activities were observed, with male/female ratios of approximately 0.6 and 3 respectively for these tissue extracts.     

NanoDam identifies Homeobrain (ARX) and Scarecrow (NKX2.1) as conserved temporal factors in the Drosophila central brain and visual system

1. Download : Download high-res image (146KB)
2. Download : Download full-size image

     

Conditional and Unconditional Simulation of Healthy Patients' Visual Fields

This paper describes a simulation problem, motivated by the study of glaucoma, a very serious and widespread ocular illness. To ascertain whether a patient suffers from glaucoma, a perimetric test is done, but the evolution of the disease is very slow, and large longitudinal sets of tests taken on the same patient are needed to study its evolution, to analyze the efficiency of existing methods to detect the progression of glaucoma and to develop new ones. Simulation can be a very useful procedure to get appropriate data sets to work with. Our aim in this work is to simulate several VFs in a healthy patient to reflect his evolution in time. We use a spatio‐temporal model to simulate from, taking into account the correlation existing between the observed (or simulated) values in space and time. Two different simulation procedures (unconditional and conditional) are studied, and applied to obtain the simulations we are interested in. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The incidence, distribution and expression of Australian grapevine yellows, restricted growth and late season leaf curl diseases in selected Australian vineyards

Surveys were conducted in four Chardonnay vineyards for 3 to 6 years and one Shiraz vineyard for 3 years to determine the yearly percentage of grapevines affected by Australian grapevine yellows disease (AGYd), restricted growth disease (RGd) and late season leaf curl disease (LSLCd). In each of the Chardonnay vineyards in each year, all three diseases were characterised by remission of disease in some grapevines, recurrence of disease in other grapevines and new observations of disease in previously unaffected grapevines. The pattern of temporal incidence of each disease was different between vineyards for the survey period. Although Koch's postulates have not been fulfilled, phytoplasmas are considered to be the most likely cause of AGYd. While some grapevines exhibited a combination of AGYd and RGd or AGYd and LSLCd, both RGd and LSLCd can occur independently of AGYd. Statistical analyses using log-linear models also indicated that RGd and LSLCd were not always associated with AGYd. Thus, it is possible that phytoplasmas are not the cause of RGd or LSLCd and their association is coincidental. Expression of AGYd in Shiraz grapevines occurred later in the season compared to Chardonnay. Very little recurrence of AGYd was observed in the Shiraz grapevines indicating that the variety Shiraz responds differently to phytoplasma infections, assuming that AGYd in Shiraz is a phytoplasma caused disease. RGd and LSLCd were not observed on any grapevines in the Shiraz vineyard.     

Prediction of heavy-metal concentrations in mature plants by chemical analysis of seedlings

Five plant species were cultivated on a soil from the Neckar alluvial fan near Heidelberg (FRG) polluted by the emissions of a cement plant. Thallium, cadmium and lead concentrations in seedlings and mature plants were determined by atomic absorption analysis. AdditionallyBrassica napus L.napus was grown on soils containing 5 different concentrations of heavy metals, achieved by mixing two similar soils, from the same area but with different metal concentrations. Thallium and cadmium were shown to be taken up by roots whilst lead which was also absorbed, was deposited mainly on the plant surface. However during cultivation in the winter months, a remarkable deposit of lead via the roots was found. Thallium in the soil from a anthrorogen source was more available to plants than thallium of geological origin. During the lifetime of a plant concentrations of thallium and cadmium were always highest in the seedling. The decrease in metal concentration with maturity depended on the plant species and the element, but was not a function of the metal concentration in the soil.