Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

Sex ratios under asymmetrical local mate competition in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis

Sex ratio theory has proved remarkably useful in testing theadaptive nature of animal behavior. A particularly productivearea in this respect is Hamilton's theory of local mate competition(LMC), which has been extended in numerous directions to includegreater biological realism, allowing more detailed tests inspecific organisms. We have presented one such extension, termedasymmetrical LMC, which occurs when egg laying by females ona patch is asynchronous, and emerging males do not disperse,resulting in the extent of LMC on a patch varying over time.Our aim here is to test whether the parasitoid wasp Nasoniavitripennis responds to variation in the degree of asymmetricalLMC. Specifically, we show that females adjust their offspringsex ratios in response to (1) variation in the amount of asynchronyin emergence between broods on a patch and (2) the number andproportion of previously parasitized hosts on the patch. Ourresults provide qualitative support for the predictions of theory,suggesting new levels of complexity in the sex ratio behaviorof this much-studied organism. However, our results do not alwaysprovide quantitative support for theory, suggesting furthercomplexities that must be clarified.     

Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

What paths do advantageous alleles take during short‐term evolutionary change?

Combining experimental evolution with whole‐genome resequencing is a promising new strategy for investigating the dynamics of evolutionary change. Published studies that have resequenced laboratory‐selected populations of sexual organisms have typically focused on populations sampled at the end of an evolution experiment. These studies have attempted to associate particular alleles with phenotypic change and attempted to distinguish between different theoretical models of adaptation. However, neither the population used to initiate the experiment nor multiple time points sampled during the evolutionary trajectory are generally available for examination. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Orozco‐terWengel et al. (2012) take a significant step forward by estimating genome‐wide allele frequencies at the start, 15 generations into and at the end of a 37‐generation Drosophila experimental evolution study. The authors identify regions of the genome that have responded to laboratory selection and describe the temporal dynamics of allele frequency change. They identify two common trajectories for putatively adaptive alleles: alleles either gradually increase in frequency throughout the entire 37 generations or alleles plateau at a new frequency by generation 15. The identification of complex trajectories of alleles under selection contributes to a growing body of literature suggesting that simple models of adaptation, whereby beneficial alleles arise and increase in frequency unimpeded until they become fixed, may not adequately describe short‐term response to selection.     

Contrast-FEL—A Test for Differences in Selective Pressures at Individual Sites among Clades and Sets of Branches

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.     

Temporal and spatial trends in heavy metal concentrations in the marine mussel Mytilus edulis from the Western Scheldt estuary (The Netherlands)

Since the first North Sea Conference (1984, Bremen), all countries bordering the North Sea made commitments to reduce discharge of hazardous substances into the North Sea. From Belgium and The Netherlands, large reductions (upto 90) in heavy metal emissions from land-based sources have been reported between 1985 and 2000. Recently, some studies in the Western Scheldt estuary (WS) have shown that total metal concentration in the water, sediments and suspended particles have decreased compared to levels in the 70s. However, data on aquatic organisms is still very limited and it is therefore difficult to confirm whether the reductions in pollution input and generally improving water quality in the WS have a corresponding impact on the levels of heavy metals in aquatic organisms. The current study measured metal concentrations in the soft tissues of mussels, Mytilus edulis (known to be good indicators of environmental metal pollution) during the period 1996–2002. Spatial (salinity and pollution gradients), temporal and seasonal variations were also studied. Results showed a down-stream decreasing trend for the metals studied (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) during all sampling campaigns. There was also a significant seasonal effect on tissue metal concentrations, with a peak observed around spring in both WS and the nearby less polluted Eastern Scheldt (ES). On temporal trends, a clear drop of metals in mussels was observed in the early 80s coinciding with the start of the efforts to reduce chemical pollution input into the North Sea. Since those early reductions, metal concentrations in mussels generally remained unchanged upto mid 90s. However, in recent times metal concentration in mussels have increased significantly, for example Cd in 2002 was almost 10 times the values in 1983 and similar to levels seen during the peak in the 70s. Other metals also increased in the 90s also reaching levels seen in the 70s. As there is no indication of recent increase in metal input into the estuary, we suggest that increased metal concentrations observed in mussels in recent years especially in the upper estuary are most likely a result of changes in physical and chemical speciation and metal bioavailability. Such changes may be caused by changes in some water quality parameters in the estuary (i.e. increased dissolved oxygen, concentration of organic matter), resulting in conditions that favour releases of sediment-bound metals into the water column. The relationship between metal content and season showed very similar annual profiles in the polluted WS and less polluted ES. Thus, seasonal variations in metal concentrations appear to be largely controlled by biological processes, while total body burdens are dependent on environmental levels and bioavailability.     

The Everyday Life Context of Increasing Energy Demands: Time Use Survey Data in a Decomposition Analysis

Industrial ecologists have modeled with precision the material foundations of industrial systems, but given less attention to the demand for products and the drivers of structural changes in these systems. This article suggests that time use data complement data on monetary expenditure and can be used to elucidate the everyday life context in which the changes in the economy take place. It builds upon the claim that goods are not direct sources of utility, but enter specific household activities as inputs. A second argument for the proposed approach is that it can be used to introduce and foster human agency in analyses of production systems. The article uses Finnish time use survey data, consumption expenditure data, and data on the sectoral energy intensities of financial output in the Finnish economy. First, a measure of the energy intensity of activities is derived by relating consumer time use and the required direct and indirect energy requirements. Second, the results include a decomposition of changes in the energy requirements of private consumption in Finland during the 1990s. It is shown that although the same activities on average require increasing energy inputs per unit of time, Finns have simultaneously changed the structure of their everyday life toward less energy-intensive activities.