Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

How do elevated CO2 and O3 affect the interception and utilization of radiation by a soybean canopy?

Net productivity of vegetation is determined by the product of the efficiencies with which it intercepts light (?_i) and converts that intercepted energy into biomass (?_c). Elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) increases photosynthesis and leaf area index (LAI) of soybeans and thus may increase ?_i and ?_c; elevated O₃ may have the opposite effect. Knowing if elevated CO₂ and O₃ differentially affect physiological more than structural components of the ecosystem may reveal how these elements of global change will ultimately alter productivity. The effects of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on an intact soybean ecosystem were examined with Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) technology where large field plots (20‐m diameter) were exposed to elevated CO₂ (～550 μmol mol^?1) and elevated O₃ (1.2 × ambient) in a factorial design. Aboveground biomass, LAI and light interception were measured during the growing seasons of 2002, 2003 and 2004 to calculate ?_i and ?_c. A 15% increase in yield (averaged over 3 years) under elevated CO₂ was caused primarily by a 12% stimulation in ?_c , as ?_i increased by only 3%. Though accelerated canopy senescence under elevated O₃ caused a 3% decrease in ?_i, the primary effect of O₃ on biomass was through an 11% reduction in ?_c. When CO₂ and O₃ were elevated in combination, CO₂ partially reduced the negative effects of elevated O₃. Knowing that changes in productivity in elevated CO₂ and O₃ were influenced strongly by the efficiency of conversion of light energy into energy in plant biomass will aid in optimizing soybean yields in the future. Future modeling efforts that rely on ?_c for calculating regional and global plant productivity will need to accommodate the effects of global change on this important ecosystem attribute.     

Towards a theory of the evolution of butterfly colour patterns under directional and disruptive selection

Two general models for the transspecific evolution of butterfly colour patterns are advanced: directional selection acting equally on both sexes, and disruptive selection involving periods of polymorphism. To consider possible outcomes of me latter process, a morphism notation based on an integrated classification for polymorphism and sexual dimorphism is developed. This notation is used to examine the properties of all morphism transformations possible from the minimal expressions of the nine morphism categories, as reached through defined minimum step changes. The significance of such pathway models is analysed in terms of general properties of butterfly polymorphism. The potential use of pathway models in evolutionary studies is briefly discussed, mainly with respect to phylogenetics, and ideas on the evolution of genetic dominance.     

Microsecond Dynamics During the Binding-induced Folding of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein

Tau is an intrinsically disordered protein implicated in many neurodegenerative diseases. The repeat domain fragment of tau, tau-K18, is known to undergo a disorder to order transition in the presence of lipid micelles and vesicles, in which helices form in each of the repeat domains. Here, the mechanism of helical structure formation, induced by a phospholipid mimetic, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) at sub-micellar concentrations, has been studied using multiple biophysical probes. A study of the conformational dynamics of the disordered state, using photoinduced electron transfer coupled to fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (PET-FCS) has indicated the presence of an intermediate state, I, in equilibrium with the unfolded state, U. The cooperative binding of the ligand (L), SDS, to I has been shown to induce the formation of a compact, helical intermediate (IL₅) within the dead time (∼37 µs) of a continuous flow mixer. Quantitative analysis of the PET-FCS data and the ensemble microsecond kinetic data, suggests that the mechanism of induction of helical structure can be described by a U ↔ I ↔ IL₅ ↔ FL₅ mechanism, in which the final helical state, FL₅, forms from IL₅ with a time constant of 50–200 µs. Finally, it has been shown that the helical conformation is an aggregation-competent state that can directly form amyloid fibrils.     

The seasonal dynamics of Copidodiaptomus numidicus (Gurney, 1909) and Thermocyclops dybowskii (Lande, 1890) in Castelo-do-Bode Reservoir

We investigated the population dynamics of Copidodiaptomus numidicus (Copepoda: Calanoida) and Thermocyclops dybowskii (Copepoda: Cyclopoida) in Castelo-do-Bode Reservoir (Portugal). Both species in the reservoir were regulated mainly by food availability during the summers of 1993 and 1994. C. numidicus was always more abundant than T. dybowskii in the reservoir. C. numidicus produced two generations during the sampling period of both years whereas T. dybowskii produced two and three generations in 1993 and 1994, respectively. Because of high temperatures and low rainfall in 1994, the reservoir was more eutrophic than in 1993. Higher clutch size and a higher percentage of ovigerous females suggest that both species were benefiting from better feeding conditions in 1994. Despite this, population growth was reduced in 1994 relatively to 1993. Vertebrate predation and predation by copepods seem to have been minor factors in explaining this decline. However, the presence of Mesostoma sp. in the reservoir may have contributed to the reduction of both copepod populations during specific periods in 1994 although the calanoid was more affected than the cyclopoid by this predation.     

A Comparison of Bone Mineral Density and Its Predictors in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Older Men

ObjectiveBone health in older individuals with HIV infection has not been well studied. This study aimed to compare bone mineral density (BMD), trabecular bone score (TBS), and bone markers between HIV-infected men and age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched HIV-uninfected men aged ≥60 years. We investigated the associations of risk factors related to fracture with BMD, TBS, and bone markers in HIV-infected men.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 45 HIV-infected men receiving antiretroviral therapy and 42 HIV-uninfected men. Medical history, BMD and TBS measurements, and laboratory tests related to bone health were assessed in all the participants. HIV-related factors known to be associated with bone loss were assessed in the HIV-infected men.ResultsThe mean BMD, TBS, and osteopenia or osteoporosis prevalence were similar among the cases and controls. The HIV-infected men had significantly higher mean N-terminal propeptide of type 1 procollagen and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen levels. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that low BMI (lumbar spine, P = .015; femoral neck, P = .018; and total hip, P = .005), high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen concentration (total hip, P = .042; and TBS, P = .010), and low vitamin D supplementation (TBS, P = .035) were independently associated with low BMD and TBS.ConclusionIn older HIV-infected men with a low fracture risk, the mean BMD and TBS were similar to those of the age- and BMI-matched controls. The mean bone marker levels were higher in the HIV group. Traditional risk factors for fracture, including low BMI, high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen level, and low vitamin D supplementation, were significant predictors of low BMD and TBS.     

Semiparametric Regression in Size-Biased Sampling

Summary .  Size-biased sampling arises when a positive-valued outcome variable is sampled with selection probability proportional to its size. In this article, we propose a semiparametric linear regression model to analyze size-biased outcomes. In our proposed model, the regression parameters of covariates are of major interest, while the distribution of random errors is unspecified. Under the proposed model, we discover that regression parameters are invariant regardless of size-biased sampling. Following this invariance property, we develop a simple estimation procedure for inferences. Our proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to two real data analyses.     

Optimizing purebred selection for crossbred performance using QTL with different degrees of dominance

A method was developed to optimize simultaneous selection for a quantitative trait with a known QTL within a male and a female line to maximize crossbred performance from a two-way cross. Strategies to maximize cumulative discounted response in crossbred performance over ten generations were derived by optimizing weights in an index of a QTL and phenotype. Strategies were compared to selection on purebred phenotype. Extra responses were limited for QTL with additive and partial dominance effects, but substantial for QTL with over-dominance, for which optimal QTL selection resulted in differential selection in male and female lines to increase the frequency of heterozygotes and polygenic responses. For over-dominant QTL, maximization of crossbred performance one generation at a time resulted in similar responses as optimization across all generations and simultaneous optimal selection in a male and female line resulted in greater response than optimal selection within a single line without crossbreeding. Results show that strategic use of information on over-dominant QTL can enhance crossbred performance without crossbred testing.