Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

An active balance board system with real-time control of stiffness and time-delay to assess mechanisms of postural stability

Increased time-delay in the neuromuscular system caused by neurological disorders, concussions, or advancing age is an important factor contributing to balance loss (Chagdes et al., 2013, 2016a,b). We present the design and fabrication of an active balance board system that allows for a systematic study of stiffness and time-delay induced instabilities in standing posture. Although current commercial balance boards allow for variable stiffness, they do not allow for manipulation of time-delay. Having two controllable parameters can more accurately determine the cause of balance deficiencies, and allows us to induce instabilities even in healthy populations. An inverted pendulum model of human posture on such an active balance board predicts that reduced board rotational stiffness destabilizes upright posture through board tipping, and limit cycle oscillations about the upright position emerge as feedback time-delay is increased. We validate these two mechanisms of instability on the designed balance board, showing that rotational stiffness and board time-delay induced the predicted postural instabilities in healthy, young adults. Although current commercial balance boards utilize control of rotational stiffness, real-time control of both stiffness and time-delay on an active balance board is a novel and innovative manipulation to reveal balance deficiencies and potentially improve individualized balance training by targeting multiple dimensions contributing to standing balance.     

Towards a theory of the evolution of butterfly colour patterns under directional and disruptive selection

Two general models for the transspecific evolution of butterfly colour patterns are advanced: directional selection acting equally on both sexes, and disruptive selection involving periods of polymorphism. To consider possible outcomes of me latter process, a morphism notation based on an integrated classification for polymorphism and sexual dimorphism is developed. This notation is used to examine the properties of all morphism transformations possible from the minimal expressions of the nine morphism categories, as reached through defined minimum step changes. The significance of such pathway models is analysed in terms of general properties of butterfly polymorphism. The potential use of pathway models in evolutionary studies is briefly discussed, mainly with respect to phylogenetics, and ideas on the evolution of genetic dominance.     

Microsecond Dynamics During the Binding-induced Folding of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein

Tau is an intrinsically disordered protein implicated in many neurodegenerative diseases. The repeat domain fragment of tau, tau-K18, is known to undergo a disorder to order transition in the presence of lipid micelles and vesicles, in which helices form in each of the repeat domains. Here, the mechanism of helical structure formation, induced by a phospholipid mimetic, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) at sub-micellar concentrations, has been studied using multiple biophysical probes. A study of the conformational dynamics of the disordered state, using photoinduced electron transfer coupled to fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (PET-FCS) has indicated the presence of an intermediate state, I, in equilibrium with the unfolded state, U. The cooperative binding of the ligand (L), SDS, to I has been shown to induce the formation of a compact, helical intermediate (IL₅) within the dead time (∼37 µs) of a continuous flow mixer. Quantitative analysis of the PET-FCS data and the ensemble microsecond kinetic data, suggests that the mechanism of induction of helical structure can be described by a U ↔ I ↔ IL₅ ↔ FL₅ mechanism, in which the final helical state, FL₅, forms from IL₅ with a time constant of 50–200 µs. Finally, it has been shown that the helical conformation is an aggregation-competent state that can directly form amyloid fibrils.     

Relationship between postabsorptive respiratory exchange ratio and plasma free fatty acid concentrations

The relationship between overnight postabsorptive (fasting) respiratory exchange ratio (RER) and plasma FFA concentrations was addressed using data from three separate protocols, each of which involved careful control of the antecedent diet. Protocol 1 examined the relationship between fasting RER and the previous daytime RER. In Protocol 2 fasting, RER and plasma palmitate concentrations were measured in 29 women and 31 men (body mass index <30 kg·m⁻²). Protocol 3 analyzed data from Nielsen et al. (Nielsen, S., Z. K. Guo, J. B. Albu, S. Klein, P. C. O''Brien, M. D. Jensen. 2003. Energy expenditure, sex and endogenous fuel availability in humans. J. Clin. Invest. 111: 981-988.) to understand how fasting RER and palmitate concentrations relate within individuals during four consecutive measurements. The results were as follows: 1) Fasting RER was correlated (r = 0.74, P < 0.001) with the previous day''s average RER, and less so with RER variability. 2) Fasting RER was correlated (r = −0.39, P = 0.007) with fasting plasma palmitate concentrations. 3) The pattern of the RER/palmitate relationship was similar within individuals and between individuals; a negative slope was observed significantly more often than a positive slope (χ² test; P < 0.001). Our findings suggest that, despite a fixed food quotient, the slight departures from energy equilibrium in a controlled General Clinical Research Center environment can effect plasma FFA concentrations. We suggest that including indirect calorimetry as part of FFA metabolism studies may aid in data interpretation.     

Climate change and seasonal reproduction in mammals

Seasonal reproduction is common among mammals at all latitudes, even in the deep tropics. This paper (i) discusses the neuroendocrine pathways via which foraging conditions and predictive cues such as photoperiod enforce seasonality, (ii) considers the kinds of seasonal challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats, and (iii) uses the information thus generated to suggest how seasonal reproduction might be influenced by global climate change. Food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance, and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. Photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. It is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes. An unknown predictive cue triggers reproduction in some desert and dry grassland species when it rains. The available information suggests that as our climate changes the small rodents of the world may adapt rather easily but the longer lived mammals whose reproduction is regulated by photoperiod may not do so well. A major gap in our knowledge concerns the tropics; that is where most species live and where we have the least understanding of how reproduction is regulated by environmental factors.     

Semiparametric Regression in Size-Biased Sampling

Summary .  Size-biased sampling arises when a positive-valued outcome variable is sampled with selection probability proportional to its size. In this article, we propose a semiparametric linear regression model to analyze size-biased outcomes. In our proposed model, the regression parameters of covariates are of major interest, while the distribution of random errors is unspecified. Under the proposed model, we discover that regression parameters are invariant regardless of size-biased sampling. Following this invariance property, we develop a simple estimation procedure for inferences. Our proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to two real data analyses.     

Optimizing purebred selection for crossbred performance using QTL with different degrees of dominance

A method was developed to optimize simultaneous selection for a quantitative trait with a known QTL within a male and a female line to maximize crossbred performance from a two-way cross. Strategies to maximize cumulative discounted response in crossbred performance over ten generations were derived by optimizing weights in an index of a QTL and phenotype. Strategies were compared to selection on purebred phenotype. Extra responses were limited for QTL with additive and partial dominance effects, but substantial for QTL with over-dominance, for which optimal QTL selection resulted in differential selection in male and female lines to increase the frequency of heterozygotes and polygenic responses. For over-dominant QTL, maximization of crossbred performance one generation at a time resulted in similar responses as optimization across all generations and simultaneous optimal selection in a male and female line resulted in greater response than optimal selection within a single line without crossbreeding. Results show that strategic use of information on over-dominant QTL can enhance crossbred performance without crossbred testing.