Imprints of glacial history and current environment on correlations between endemic plant and invertebrate species richness

Aim We evaluate how closely diversity patterns of endemic species of vascular plants, beetles, butterflies, molluscs and spiders are correlated with each other, and to what extent similar environmental requirements or survival in common glacial refugia and comparable dispersal limitations account for their existing congruence. Location Austria. Methods We calculated pairwise correlations among species numbers of the five taxonomic groups in 1405 cells of a 3′ × 5′ raster (c. 35 km²) using the raw data as well as the residuals of regression models that accounted for: (1) environmental variables, (2) environmental variables and the occurrence of potential refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum, or (3) environmental variables, refugia and spatial filters. Results Pairwise cross‐taxonomic group Spearman’s rank correlations in the raw data were significantly positive in most cases, but only moderate (0.3 < ρ < 0.5) to weak (ρ < 0.3) throughout. Correlations were closest between plants and beetles, plants and butterflies, and plants and snails, respectively, whereas the distribution of endemic spiders was largely uncorrelated with those of the other groups. Environmental variables explained only a moderate proportion of the variance in endemic richness patterns, and the response of individual groups to environmental gradients was only partly consistent. The inclusion of refugium locations and the spatial filters increased the goodness of model fit for all five taxonomic groups. Moreover, removing the effects of environmental conditions reduced congruence in endemic richness patterns to a lesser extent than did filtering the influence of refugium locations and spatial autocorrelation, except for spiders, which are probably the least dispersal‐limited of the five groups. Main conclusions The moderate to weak congruence of endemic richness patterns clearly limits the usefulness of a surrogacy approach for designating areas for the protection of regional endemics. On the other hand, our results suggest that dispersal limitations still shape the distributions of many endemic plant, snail, beetle and butterfly species, even at the regional scale; that is, survival in shared refugia and subsequent restricted spread retain a detectable signal in existing correlations. Concentrating conservation efforts on well‐known Pleistocene refugia hence appears to be a reasonable first step towards a strategy for protecting regional endemics of at least the less mobile invertebrate groups.     

Chloroplast DNA phylogeography of Fagus crenata (Fagaceae) in Japan

 CpDNA variation in Japanese beech, Fagus crenata (Fagaceae), was studied in 45 populations distributed throughout the species' range. Two cpDNA regions were sequenced: the non-coding region between the trnL (UAA) 5′exon and trnF (GAA), and the trnK region (including matK). Thirteen distinct cpDNA haplotypes were recognized and each haplotype was found to be geographically structured. Two major clades (I and II+III) were revealed in phylogenetic analyses among the haplotypes using F. sylvatica as an outgroup. The haplotypes of Clade I were distributed mainly along the Japan Sea side of the Japanese Archipelago, while those of Clade II+III occurred chiefly along the Pacific Ocean side. Consequently, the distribution of the two major cpDNA clades suggests that there were two migration routes in the history of F. crenata; one along the Japan Sea and the other along the Pacific Ocean side of the Japanese Islands. Received March 19, 2001 Accepted November 22, 2001     

The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters

Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.     

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial–interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid‐Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross‐validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm‐temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum‐Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.     

Northern richness and southern poverty: contrasting genetic footprints of glacial refugia in the relictual tree Sciadopitys verticillata (Coniferales: Sciadopityaceae)

Sciadopitys verticillata is amongst the most relictual of all plants, being the last living member of an ancient conifer lineage, the Sciadopityaceae, and is distributed in small and disjunct populations in high rainfall regions of Japan. Although mega‐fossils indicate the persistence of the species within Japan through the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, how the species withstood the colder and drier climates of the glacials is not well known. The present study utilized phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling to test whether the species survived within pollen‐based coastal temperate forest glacial refugia or within previously unidentified refugia close to its current range. Sixteen chloroplast haplotypes were found that displayed significant geographical structuring. Unexpectedly, northern populations in central Honshu most distant from coastal refugia had the highest chloroplast diversity and were differentiated from the south, a legacy of glacial populations possibly in inland river valleys close to its current northern range. By contrast, populations near putative coastal refugia in southern Japan, harboured the lower chloroplast diversity and were dominated by a single haplotype. Fragment size polymorphism at a highly variable and homoplasious mononucleotide repeat region in the trnT‐trnL intergenic spacer reinforced the contrasting patterns of diversity observed between northern and southern populations. The divergent histories of northern and southern populations revealed in the present study will inform the management of this globally significant conifer. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 108 , 263–277.