Model misspecification and bias for inverse probability weighting estimators of average causal effects

Commonly used semiparametric estimators of causal effects specify parametric models for the propensity score (PS) and the conditional outcome. An example is an augmented inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator, frequently referred to as a doubly robust estimator, because it is consistent if at least one of the two models is correctly specified. However, in many observational studies, the role of the parametric models is often not to provide a representation of the data-generating process but rather to facilitate the adjustment for confounding, making the assumption of at least one true model unlikely to hold. In this paper, we propose a crude analytical approach to study the large-sample bias of estimators when the models are assumed to be approximations of the data-generating process, namely, when all models are misspecified. We apply our approach to three prototypical estimators of the average causal effect, two IPW estimators, using a misspecified PS model, and an augmented IPW (AIPW) estimator, using misspecified models for the outcome regression (OR) and the PS. For the two IPW estimators, we show that normalization, in addition to having a smaller variance, also offers some protection against bias due to model misspecification. To analyze the question of when the use of two misspecified models is better than one we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for when the AIPW estimator has a smaller bias than a simple IPW estimator and when it has a smaller bias than an IPW estimator with normalized weights. If the misspecification of the outcome model is moderate, the comparisons of the biases of the IPW and AIPW estimators show that the AIPW estimator has a smaller bias than the IPW estimators. However, all biases include a scaling with the PS-model error and we suggest caution in modeling the PS whenever such a model is involved. For numerical and finite sample illustrations, we include three simulation studies and corresponding approximations of the large-sample biases. In a dataset from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we estimate the effect of smoking on blood lead levels.     

Oviposition preferences and antennal size in carrion flies

Carrion-feeding flies use odours emanating from the decomposing corpse as cues for oviposition and are described as generalists because the larvae feed on the corpses of diverse species. Whereas several features of the corpse may influence the oviposition choices of these flies, it is not known whether there is a preference for a particular species of corpse. We provided carrion flies with ovipositional (and feeding) choices in a field experiment, in which various odour sources were presented simultaneously. We found novel evidence of broadly consistent choices of carrion by flies from four families. Traps baited with decaying fish flesh captured the greatest number of individuals, whereas traps baited with decaying pig liver typically attracted the least. We also asked whether individuals captured in the various baits vary in antennal size, perhaps reflecting different capacities for odour detection. There was a trend for individuals of Lucilia sericata Meigen (Diptera: Calliphoridae) and the platystomatid collected from the traps baited with pig liver to have significantly larger antennae, whereas individuals of Muscina stabulans (Fallen) (Diptera: Muscidae) captured in traps baited with marine fish flesh had relatively longer antennae for their body size. Our data reveal a more nuanced pattern of oviposition behaviour in these generalist carrion flies, which may reflect differences in their preference of carrion with different nutrients, and in their capacity to detect particular odours.     

Host genetic risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia

This study was conducted to establish the contribution of genetic host factors in the susceptibility to community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the Russian population. Patients with CAP (n = 334), volunteers without a previous history of CAP, constantly exposed to infectious agents, control A group (n = 141) and a second control group B consisted of healthy persons (n = 314) were included in the study. All subjects were genotyped for 13 polymorphic variants in the genes of xenobiotics detoxification CYP1A1 (rs2606345, rs4646903, and rs1048943), GSTM1 (Ins/del), GSTT1 (Ins/del), ABCB1 rs1045642); immune and inflammation response IL-6 (rs1800795), TNF-a (rs1800629), MBL2 (rs7096206), CCR5 (rs333), NOS3 (rs1799983), angiotensin-converting enzyme ACE (rs4340), and occlusive vascular disease/hyperhomocysteinemia MTHFR (rs1801133). Seven polymorphic variants in genes CYP1A1, GSTM1, ABCB1, NOS3, IL6, CCR5 and ACE were associated with CAP. For two genes CYP1A1 and GSTM1 associations remained significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Multiple analysis by the number of all risk genotypes showed a highly significant association with CAP (P = 2.4 × 10^− 7, OR = 3.03, 95% CI 1.98–4.64) with the threshold for three risk genotypes. Using the ROC-analysis, the AUC value for multi-locus model was estimated as 68.38.     

Putative osmosensor – OsHK3b – a histidine kinase protein from rice shows high structural conservation with its ortholog AtHK1 from Arabidopsis

Prokaryotes and eukaryotes respond to various environmental stimuli using the two-component system (TCS). Essentially, it consists of membrane-bound histidine kinase (HK) which senses the stimuli and further transfers the signal to the response regulator, which in turn, regulates expression of various target genes. Recently, sequence-based genome wide analysis has been carried out in Arabidopsis and rice to identify all the putative members of TCS family. One of the members of this family i.e. AtHK1, (a putative osmosensor, hybrid-type sensory histidine kinase) is known to interact with AtHPt1 (phosphotransfer proteins) in Arabidopsis. Based on predicted rice interactome network (PRIN), the ortholog of AtHK1 in rice, OsHK3b, was found to be interacting with OsHPt2. The analysis of amino acid sequence of AtHK1 showed the presence of transmitter domain (TD) and receiver domain (RD), while OsHK3b showed presence of three conserved domains namely CHASE (signaling domain), TD, and RD. In order to elaborate on structural details of functional domains of hybrid-type HK and phosphotransfer proteins in both these genera, we have modeled them using homology modeling approach. The structural motifs present in various functional domains of the orthologous proteins were found to be highly conserved. Binding analysis of the RD domain of these sensory proteins in Arabidopsis and rice revealed the role of various residues such as histidine in HPt protein which are essential for their interaction.     

Reconstructing paternal genotypes to infer patterns of sperm storage and sexual selection in the hawksbill turtle

Postcopulatory sperm storage can serve a range of functions, including ensuring fertility, allowing delayed fertilization and facilitating sexual selection. Sperm storage is likely to be particularly important in wide‐ranging animals with low population densities, but its prevalence and importance in such taxa, and its role in promoting sexual selection, are poorly known. Here, we use a powerful microsatellite array and paternal genotype reconstruction to assess the prevalence of sperm storage and test sexual selection hypotheses of genetic biases to paternity in one such species, the critically endangered hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata. In the majority of females (90.7%, N = 43), all offspring were sired by a single male. In the few cases of multiple paternity (9.3%), two males fertilized each female. Importantly, the identity and proportional fertilization success of males were consistent across all sequential nests laid by individual females over the breeding season (up to five nests over 75 days). No males were identified as having fertilized more than one female, suggesting that a large number of males are available to females. No evidence for biases to paternity based on heterozygosity or relatedness was found. These results indicate that female hawksbill turtles are predominantly monogamous within a season, store sperm for the duration of the nesting season and do not re‐mate between nests. Furthermore, females do not appear to be using sperm storage to facilitate sexual selection. Consequently, the primary value of storing sperm in marine turtles may be to uncouple mating and fertilization in time and avoid costly re‐mating.     

Receiver bias for exaggerated signals in honeybees and its implications for the evolution of floral displays

Mechanistic models of animal signals posit the occurrence of biases on the part of receivers that could be potentially exploited by signallers. Such biases are most obvious when animals are confronted with exaggerated versions of signals they normally encounter. Signalling systems operating in plant-pollinator interactions are among the most highly coevolved, with plants using a variety of floral signals to attract pollinators. A number of observations suggest that pollinators preferentially visit larger floral displays although the benefit of this to either the plant or the pollinator is not always clear. We use a standard dual-choice experimental protocol to show that honeybees display a receiver bias for exaggerated size and colour contrast--two important components of floral signals--even when such signals do not indicate quality. We discuss the implications of this receiver bias for the evolution of floral displays and its possible exploitation by invading alien plants.     

Identification of a 4-miRNA signature as a potential prognostic biomarker for pancreatic adenocarcinoma

An microRNA (miRNA) signature to predict the clinical outcome of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAAD) is still lacking. In the current study, we aimed at identifying and evaluating a prognostic miRNA signature for patients with PAAD. The miRNA expression profile and the clinical information regarding patients with PAAD were recruited from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Differentially expressed miRNAs were identified between normal and tumor samples. By means of survival analysis, a 4-miRNA signature for predicting patients' with PAAD overall survival (OS) was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to determine the efficiency of survival prediction. Furthermore, the biological function of the predicted miRNAs was evaluated using a bioinformatics approach. Four (hsa-mir-126, hsa-mir-3613, hsa-mir-424, and hsa-mir-4772) out of 17 differentially expressed miRNAs were associated to the OS of patients with PAAD. Moreover, the area under the curve (AUC) of the constructed 4-miRNA signature associated to patients' with PAAD 2-year survival was 0.789. The multivariate Cox's proportional hazards regression model suggested that this 4-miRNA signature was an independent prognostic factor of other clinical parameters in patients with PAAD. Further pathway enrichment analyses revealed that the miRNAs in the 4-miRNA signature might regulate genes that affect focal adhesion, Wnt signaling pathway, and PI3K-Akt signaling pathway. Thus, these findings indicated that the 4-miRNA signature might be an effective independent prognostic biomarker in the prediction of PAAD patients' survival.     

Prognostic molecular markers in pediatric liver disease – Are there any?

Pediatric liver disease (PLD) is a major cause of severe morbidity and prolonged hospitalizations in children. Stratifying patients in terms of prognosis remains challenging. The limited knowledge about molecular mechanisms causing and accompanying PLD remains the main obstacle in a search for reliable prognostic biomarkers. A systematic search of MEDLINE via PubMed and Embase via OVID was conducted on studies published between August 2007 and August 2017. Molecular markers with a prognostic potential in terms of survival, need for liver transplantation or disease progression/regression were selected. In general, identified studies were single center smaller case-control studies or case series with a low level of evidence and a high risk of bias. Only 23 studies comprising 898 patients could be included, mostly focusing on biliary atresia, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, viral hepatitis, and LT; and markers related to morphogenesis and fibrosis. Furthermore, molecular markers in metabolic pathways and inflammation shown to be relevant, however requiring further validation. Hence, further biological and clinical studies are needed to gain greater molecular insight into PLD.     

A blueprint for vocal learning: auditory predispositions from brains to genomes

Memorizing and producing complex strings of sound are requirements for spoken human language. We share these behaviours with likely more than 4000 species of songbirds, making birds our primary model for studying the cognitive basis of vocal learning and, more generally, an important model for how memories are encoded in the brain. In songbirds, as in humans, the sounds that a juvenile learns later in life depend on auditory memories formed early in development. Experiments on a wide variety of songbird species suggest that the formation and lability of these auditory memories, in turn, depend on auditory predispositions that stimulate learning when a juvenile hears relevant, species-typical sounds. We review evidence that variation in key features of these auditory predispositions are determined by variation in genes underlying the development of the auditory system. We argue that increased investigation of the neuronal basis of auditory predispositions expressed early in life in combination with modern comparative genomic approaches may provide insights into the evolution of vocal learning.