A probabilistic approach to the construction of competing-risk life tables

"This paper aims to identify net and partial-crude probabilities in the competing-risk life table context, by using probabilistic approaches. Five types of lifelength random variables are defined to formulate these nonidentifiable probabilities. General expressions for net and partial-crude probabilities are first derived under independent risks assumptions. Two sets of explicit formulas for estimating the net and partial-crude probabilities are then derived in terms of the identifiable overall and crude probabilities by making the additional assumption of piecewise uniform distribution of the lifelength random variables. A study of the degree to which nonidentifiability can affect the net and partial-crude probabilities in a variety of situations is developed. An example from cross-sectional studies is employed to illustrate the methodology developed."     

Bias-reduced estimators of conditional odds ratios in matched case-control studies with unmatched confounding

We study bias-reduced estimators of exponentially transformed parameters in general linear models (GLMs) and show how they can be used to obtain bias-reduced conditional (or unconditional) odds ratios in matched case-control studies. Two options are considered and compared: the explicit approach and the implicit approach. The implicit approach is based on the modified score function where bias-reduced estimates are obtained by using iterative procedures to solve the modified score equations. The explicit approach is shown to be a one-step approximation of this iterative procedure. To apply these approaches for the conditional analysis of matched case-control studies, with potentially unmatched confounding and with several exposures, we utilize the relation between the conditional likelihood and the likelihood of the unconditional logit binomial GLM for matched pairs and Cox partial likelihood for matched sets with appropriately setup data. The properties of the estimators are evaluated by using a large Monte Carlo simulation study and an illustration of a real dataset is shown. Researchers reporting the results on the exponentiated scale should use bias-reduced estimators since otherwise the effects can be under or overestimated, where the magnitude of the bias is especially large in studies with smaller sample sizes.     

The release of genetically engineered micro-organisms and viruses into the environment

This review considers the reasons for, and research governing, the regulation and monitoring of genetically engineered micro-organisms and viruses (GEMs) released into the environment. The hazards associated with releasing GEMs into the environment are the creation and evolution of new pests and diseases, and damage to the ecosystem and non target species. The similarities and differences between GEMs and conventional micro-organisms are discussed in relation to risk assessment. Other issues covered include the persistence of micro-organisms in the environment, transgene dispersal to non-engineered microbes and other organisms, the effects of transgenes and transformation on fitness, and the evolution of pests and pathogens that are given or acquire transgenes. Areas requiring further research are identified and recommendations for risk assessment made.     

枣麦间作枣园主要蚧虫复合种群结构及生态位

为了有效地控制枣树蚧害,2002年在太谷地区对枣麦间作枣园的康氏粉蚧(Pseudococcus comstock Kuwane)、日本蜡蚧(Ceroplastes japonicus Green)和梨园蚧(Quadraspidiotus perniciosus Comstock)的复合种群结构及其生态位进行了系统研究.结果表明,在枣树发育早期,3种蚧虫分布范围主要在下、中部的东、南方位,康氏粉蚧的时空二维生态位的宽度较大,是该时期的优势种.到中期3种蚧虫复合种群的分布聚集在树冠上部的西、北方位,时 空二维生态位的宽度以日本蜡蚧较大,种间相似程度和竞争不明显.后期3种蚧虫的复合种群结构在各部位的各个方位的分布无明显差异,但梨园蚧的虫口密度较大,日本蜡蚧在生态位上占据较大的空间.与枣树发育的中期相比,3种蚧虫复合种群结构的相似性与种间竞争系数的平均值要小.蚧害预防应早期控制康氏粉蚧,中期调治3种蚧虫的危害,后期应采取措施压低越冬虫源.     

Modeling of exposure to mercury in different environmental media over a 30-year period: A case study of Shimen reservoir,northern Taiwan

Abstract

Mercury is affected by the movement mechanisms in the environmental media and is normally present in dry and wet depositions and surface and water vapor, among other things. The rapid growth of mercury-related industries in the past two decades reflects the result of its increased use in water sources such as in the Shimen reservoir, northern Taiwan. Consequently, residents living nearby are exposed to mercury almost every day. In light of the effects of continued exposure to the deleterious properties of mercury, this study provides modeling results of the atmosphere, soil, and freshwater over a 30-year period (2016–2046). The associated influences in the media and mercury contamination during this period will be determined via sensitivity analysis. Finally, the results of this study facilitate the assessment of potential health hazards associated with mercury inhalation and the ingestion of MeHg-contaminated fish. The mean daily dose (mg/kg) and hazard quotient (HQ) in the children and adult were 3.52E-13 (HQ = 4.10E-09) and 1.19E-13 (HQ = 1.39E-09) for Hg inhalation and 6.38E-05 (HQ = 6.38E-01) and 4.47E-05 (HQ = 4.47E-01) for ingestion of MeHg+-contaminated fish.     

Variable selection in joint frailty models of recurrent and terminal events

Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in biomedical studies. In many situations, they are subject to an informative terminal event, for example, death. Joint modeling of recurrent and terminal events has attracted substantial recent research interests. On the other hand, there may exist a large number of covariates in such data. How to conduct variable selection for joint frailty proportional hazards models has become a challenge in practical data analysis. We tackle this issue on the basis of the “minimum approximated information criterion” method. The proposed method can be conveniently implemented in SAS Proc NLMIXED for commonly used frailty distributions. Its finite-sample behavior is evaluated through simulation studies. We apply the proposed method to model recurrent opportunistic diseases in the presence of death in an AIDS study.