Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.     

ABC as a flexible framework to estimate demography over space and time: some cons,many pros

The analysis of genetic variation to estimate demographic and historical parameters and to quantitatively compare alternative scenarios recently gained a powerful and flexible approach: the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The likelihood functions does not need to be theoretically specified, but posterior distributions can be approximated by simulation even assuming very complex population models including both natural and human‐induced processes. Prior information can be easily incorporated and the quality of the results can be analysed with rather limited additional effort. ABC is not a statistical analysis per se, but rather a statistical framework and any specific application is a sort of hybrid between a simulation and a data‐analysis study. Complete software packages performing the necessary steps under a set of models and for specific genetic markers are already available, but the flexibility of the method is better exploited combining different programs. Many questions relevant in ecology can be addressed using ABC, but adequate amount of time should be dedicated to decide among alternative options and to evaluate the results. In this paper we will describe and critically comment on the different steps of an ABC analysis, analyse some of the published applications of ABC and provide user guidelines.     

The posterior probability distribution of alignments and its application to parameter estimation of evolutionary trees and to optimization of multiple alignments

How to sample alignments from their posterior probability distribution given two strings is shown. This is extended to sampling alignments of more than two strings. The result is first applied to the estimation of the edges of a given evolutionary tree over several strings. Second, when used in conjunction with simulated annealing, it gives a stochastic search method for an optimal multiple alignment.Correspondence to: L. Allison     

On-line state recognition in a yeast fed-batch culture using error vectors

The physiological states with respect to cell growth and ethanol production in a yeast fed-batch culture expressed in linguistic form could be recognized on-line by fuzzy inferencing based on error vectors. The error vector was newly defined here in a macroscopic elemental balance equation. The physiological states for cell growth and ethanol production were characterized by error vectors using many experimental data from fed-batch cultures. Fuzzy membership functions were constructed from the frequency distributions of the error vectors and state recognition was performed by fuzzy inferencing. In particular, an unusual physiological state for a yeast cultivation, in which aerobic ethanol production was accompanied by very low cell growth, could be recognized accurately. According to the results of the state recognition, an energy parameter, the P/O ratio in the metabolic reaction model was adaptively estimated, and the cell growth was successfully evaluated with the estimated P/O. (c) 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.