An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Environmental and genetic control of crassulacean acid metabolism in two crassulacean species and an F1 hybrid with differing biomass δ13C values

Abstract The growth, biomass δ¹³C values, and ability to accumulate titratable acidity at night were compared in eight environmental treatments for Cremnophila linguifolia, Sedum greggii, and their F₁ hybrid. In the phytotron, differences in treatment daylength, day/night temperature and water availability were all found to have effects on total plant dry weight, nocturnal accumulation of titratable acidity and biomass δ¹³C value of at least some of the genotypes. However, there were differences between the genotypes both in the magnitude and direction of response of the phenotypic properties to the treatment variables. The phytotron δ¹³C values ranged from -12.9 to -19.2‰ for C. linguifolia, from -22.2 to -33.4‰ for S. greggii, and from -19.2 to -24.9‰ for the hybrid. After with-holding water for 76 h both C. linguifolia and the hybrid had midday Ψ_leaf values of -0.23 MPa; however, S. greggii had a value of -1.05 MPa. In contrast to past observations of other species, the daily watered plants of C. linguifolia had less negative δ¹³C values than did the plants watered only weekly.     

How Can the Eco‐efficiency of a Region be Measured and Monitored?

The concept of eco-efficiency is commonly referred to as a business link to sustainable development. In this article, ecoefficiency is examined at a regional level as an approach to promoting the competitiveness of economic activities in the Finnish Kymenlaakso region and mitigating their harmful impacts on the environment. The aim is to develop appropriate indicators for monitoring changes in the eco-efficiency of the region. A starting point is to produce indicators for the environmental and economic dimensions of regional development and use them for measuring regional eco-efficiency. The environmental impact indicators are based on a life-cycle assessment method, producing different types of environmental impact indicators: pressure indicators (e.g., emissions of CO₂), impact category indicators (e.g., CO₂ equivalents in the case of climate change), and a total impact indicator (aggregating different impact category indicator results into a single value). Environmental impact indicators based on direct material input, total material input, and total material requirement of the Kymenlaakso region are also assessed. The economic indicators used are the gross domestic product, the value added, and the output of the main economic sectors of Kymenlaakso. In the eco-efficiency assessment, the economic and environmental impact indicators are monitored in the same graph. In a few cases eco-efficiency ratios can also be calculated (the economic indicators are divided by the environmental indicators). Output (= value added + intermediate consumption) is used as an economic indicator related to the environmental impact indicators, which also cover the upstream processes of the region's activities. In the article, we also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of using the different environmental impact indicators.     

Adaptive developmental plasticity: what is it,how can we recognize it and when can it evolve?

Developmental plasticity describes situations where a specific input during an individual''s development produces a lasting alteration in phenotype. Some instances of developmental plasticity may be adaptive, meaning that the tendency to produce the phenotype conditional on having experienced the developmental input has been under positive selection. We discuss the necessary assumptions and predictions of hypotheses concerning adaptive developmental plasticity (ADP) and develop guidelines for how to test empirically whether a particular example is adaptive. Central to our analysis is the distinction between two kinds of ADP: informational, where the developmental input provides information about the future environment, and somatic state-based, where the developmental input enduringly alters some aspect of the individual''s somatic state. Both types are likely to exist in nature, but evolve under different conditions. In all cases of ADP, the expected fitness of individuals who experience the input and develop the phenotype should be higher than that of those who experience the input and do not develop the phenotype, while the expected fitness of those who do not experience the input and do not develop the phenotype should be higher than those who do not experience the input and do develop the phenotype. We describe ancillary predictions that are specific to just one of the two types of ADP and thus distinguish between them.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Estimation of Tissue Construction Cost from Heat of Combustion and Organic Nitrogen Content

Abstract. We present a method for estimating the construction costs of plant tissues from measurements of heat of combustion, ash content, and organic nitrogen content. The method predicts glucose equivalents, the amount of glucose required to provide carbon skeletons and reductant to synthesize a quantity of organic product. Glucose equivalents have previously been calculated from the elemental composition of tissue. We define construction cost as the amount of glucose required to provide carbon skeletons, reductant and ATP for synthesizing the organic compounds in a tissue via standard biochemical pathways. The fraction of the total construction cost of a compound or tissue (excluding costs of transporting compounds) that is reflected in its glucose equivalents is the biosynthetic efficiency ( E _B). This quantity varies between 0.84 and 0.95 for tissues with a wide range of compositions. Using the new method, total construction cost can be estimated to ± 6% of the value obtained from biochemical pathway analysis.
Construction costs of leaves of three chaparral species were estimated using the proposed method and compared to previously published values, derived using different methods. Agreement among methods was generally good. Differences were probably due to a combination of inaccuracy in the estimated biosynthetic efficiency and technical difficulties with biochemical analysis, one of the older methods of determining construction cost.