How reliable are dung counts for estimating elephant numbers?

Dung counts are the most commonly used techniques for estimating elephant numbers in forests, yet there is considerable scepticism concerning their accuracy. Published accounts of dung counts show that they give estimates similar to those from other methods for vertebrates ranging in size from lizards to elephants. For ungulates, macropods and elephants there are strong correlations between estimates from dung counts and other methods. Thus, dung counts are as accurate or inaccurate as other methods for estimating vertebrate numbers, including elephants. Dung counts for elephants give estimates that are as precise as, and sometimes more precise than, those from aerial surveys of elephants. This is because the variance in dung density is usually low and results in a lower than expected variance for the final elephant estimate when combined with the variances of defecation and decay rates. Dung counts may be more appropriate than aerial surveys for monitoring small or declining elephant populations.     

Field studies on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni on the West Indian Island of St. Lucia

Growth curves, calculated for field populations of B. glabrata, were not materially affected by habitat, altitude or season. A mean growth curve was therefore used to estimate the age-frequency distribution of snails in successive field samples. These data permitted the construction of ecological life tables and the estimation of r, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (or decrease) of the different populations. The calculated values of r were inserted in a simple model of unlimited population growth but the resultant curves poorly represented the observed data. A model for unlimited growth was more satisfactory for pond and marsh populations but, apparently, immigration made it less satisfactory for stream and banana drain populations. Nevertheless, r may still be of value in predicting repopulation rates in certain habitats after a mollusciciding which does not kill the entire snail population.     

Modelling HIV immune response and validation with clinical data

A system of ordinary differential equations is formulated to describe the pathogenesis of HIV infection, wherein certain features that have been shown to be important by recent experimental research are incorporated in the model. These include the role of CD4+memory cells that serve as a major reservoir of latently infected cells, a critical role for T-helper cells in the generation of CD8 memory cells capable of efficient recall response, and stimulation by antigens other than HIV. A stability analysis illustrates the capability of this model in admitting multiple locally asymptotically stable (locally a.s.) off-treatment equilibria. We show that this more biologically detailed model can exhibit the phenomenon of transient viremia experienced by some patients on therapy with viral load levels suppressed below the detection limit. We also show that the loss of CD4+T-cell help in the generation of CD8+memory cells leads to larger peak values for the viral load during transient viremia. Censored clinical data is used to obtain parameter estimates. We demonstrate that using a reduced set of 16 free parameters, obtained by fixing some parameters at their population averages, the model provides reasonable fits to the patient data and, moreover, that it exhibits good predictive capability. We further show that parameter values obtained for most clinical patients do not admit multiple locally a.s off-treatment equilibria. This suggests that treatment to move from a high viral load equilibrium state to an equilibrium state with a lower (or zero) viral load is not possible for these patients.     

Prediction of the tertiary structure of the alpha-subunit of tryptophan synthase

The tertiary structure of the alpha-subunit of tryptophan synthase was proposed using a combination of experimental data and computational methods. The vacuum-ultraviolet circular dichroism spectrum was used to assign the protein to the alpha/beta-class of supersecondary structures. The two-domain structure of the alpha-subunit (Miles et al.: Biochemistry 21:2586, 1982; Beasty and Matthews: Biochemistry 24:3547, 1985) eliminated consideration of a barrel structure and focused attention on a beta-sheet structure. An algorithm (Cohen et al.: Biochemistry 22:4894, 1983) was used to generate a secondary structure prediction that was consistent with the sequence data of the alpha-subunit from five species. Three potential secondary structures were then packed into tertiary structures using other algorithms. The assumption of nearest neighbors from second-site revertant data eliminated 97% of the possible tertiary structures; consideration of conserved hydrophobic packing regions on the beta-sheet eliminated all but one structure. The native structure is predicted to have a parallel beta-sheet flanked on both sides by alpha-helices, and is consistent with the available data on chemical cross-linking, chemical modification, and limited proteolysis. In addition, an active site region containing appropriate residues could be identified as well as an interface for beta 2-subunit association. The ability of experimental data to facilitate the prediction of protein structure is discussed.     

Prediction of the packing arrangement of strands in β-sheets of globular proteins

A method is proposed for predicting the adjacency order in which strands pack in a -sheet in a protein, on the basis of its amino acid sequence alone. The method is based on the construction of a predicted contact map for the protein, in which the probability that various residue pairs are close to each other is computed from statistically determined average distances of residue pairs in globular proteins of known structure. Compact regions, i.e., portions of the sequence with many interresidue contacts, are determined on the map by using an objective search procedure. The proximity of strands in a -sheet is predicted from the density of contacts in compact regions associated with each pair of strands. The most probable -sheet structures are those with the highest density of contacts. The method has been tested by computing the probable strand arrangements in a five-strand -sheet in five proteins or protein domains, containing 62–138 residues. Of the theoretically possible 60 strand arrangements, the method selects two to eight arrangements as most probable; i.e., it leads to a large reduction in the number of possibilities. The native strand arrangement is among those predicted for three of the five proteins. For the other two, it would be included in the prediction by a slight relaxation of the cutoff criteria used to analyze the density of contacts.     

The use of replicated progenies in marker-based mapping of QTL's

Summary Seven types of progeny are described which can be used in detection of linkage between marker loci and quantitative trait loci (QTL) in a cross between two inbred lines. Three types of progeny: recombinant inbred lines (RI); doubled haploid lines (DH); and S₁ lines can be used to detect linked main effects, d. DH and RI lines can be used to detect smaller effects than S₁ lines. However, S₁ lines can also be used to detect within-population dominance effects, h. The smallest d detectible is in the range of 1/2 to 1/12 the size of the corresponding LSD_(0.05) for the quantitative trait, using 100 lines and 6 replicates. The smallest h detectible is 3–4 times this size. Four types of progeny can be used to detect differences in the dominance behavior of alleles within the population relative to an allele in another inbred line (P₄: DH lines x P₄; RI lines x P₄; either F₂ x P₄ or S₁ lines x P₄; and progeny generated by crossing (F₁ x P₃) x P₄. Dominance differences in the range of 1 1/4 to 1/6 the size of the corresponding LSD_(0.05) are routinely detectible using 100 lines and 6 replicates. Increasing the numbers of progeny evaluated or the number of replicates allows for the detection of relatively smaller linked effects.Contribution of United AgriSeeds, Inc.     

Detection of native-like models for amino acid sequences of unknown three-dimensional structure in a data base of known protein conformations.

We present an approach which can be used to identify native-like folds in a data base of protein conformations in the absence of any sequence homology to proteins in the data base. The method is based on a knowledge-based force field derived from a set of known protein conformations. A given sequence is mounted on all conformations in the data base and the associated energies are calculated. Using several conformations and sequences from the globin family we show that the native conformation is identified correctly. In fact the resolution of the force field is high enough to discriminate between a native fold and several closely related conformations. We then apply the procedure to several globins of known sequence but unknown three dimensional structure. The homology of these sequences to globins of known structures in the data base ranges from 49 to 17%. With one exception we find that for all globin sequences one of the known globin folds is identified as the most favorable conformation. These results are obtained using a force field derived from a data base devoid of globins of known structure. We briefly discuss useful applications in protein structural research and future development of our approach.